Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PolyGram Pick polygram.ink |
2% | 98% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open on PolyGram → |
Polymarket polymarket.com |
2% | 98% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open on PolyGram → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open on PolyGram → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open on PolyGram → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open on PolyGram → |
Live odds for Polymarket-based markets come from the Polygon order book. Non-Polymarket venues show attributes only; clicking any row opens the market on PolyGram.
Active sub-markets
| Atalanta BC (-2.5) | 2% YES | 98% NO |
| O/U 0.5 | 100% YES | 1% NO |
| O/U 1.5 | 88% YES | 12% NO |
| O/U 2.5 | 38% YES | 63% NO |
| O/U 5.5 | 4% YES | 96% NO |
| ACF Fiorentina (-1.5) | 23% YES | 78% NO |
Market context
Fiorentina host Atalanta in the final round of Serie A, with the “more markets” contract depending on which side events clear rather than the result alone. For a 10% YES price, the implied bar is that only a narrow slice of combinable outcomes needs to land; in practice, traders often model these markets like a basket of event legs, then weight them by team news, line-up stability and late-game state. The historical frame is mixed: Fiorentina have generally had the better head-to-head record over the long run, but recent meetings have produced a spread of scores and a decent rate of goals, which is the sort of profile that can inflate secondary markets if both sides start strong.
The main catalysts are team sheets, rotation and whether either club treats the fixture as fully competitive or as a managed end-of-season run-out. Fiorentina have already secured survival after beating Juventus last time out, while previews from Sports Mole describe Atalanta as finishing a subdued campaign and forecast a narrow away win. FotMob’s projected line-ups show several established names available on both sides, including De Gea, Gosens, De Ketelaere and Krstovic, which matters for any programmatic approach that auto-triggers on confirmed starters. A trader using alerts or conditional orders would typically wait for official line-ups, monitor substitutions and weather the first 15 minutes for tempo, then decide whether the market’s low base rate still justifies a fill before kick-off.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?
- Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
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