Wild vs. Avalanche

Platform comparison

Market context

The Minnesota Wild face the Colorado Avalanche in an NHL matchup scheduled for 13 May at 8:00PM ET, with settlement occurring the following day. The market currently reflects an 86% implied probability favouring the Wild, suggesting the crowd expects Minnesota to prevail in regulation or overtime. Resolution includes shootout outcomes, with one goal credited to the winning team for scoring purposes.

Historical context for NHL playoff matchups at this stage reveals that home-ice advantage typically correlates with 55–65% win probabilities in conference play, depending on seeding and recent form. The 86% probability for the Wild implies either significant underlying strength differential, recent performance divergence, or injury-related factors affecting the Avalanche. Comparable markets from recent playoff seasons show that probabilities this skewed often reflect concrete roster disadvantages rather than pure sentiment, though they occasionally overcorrect when public perception lags behind team news.

Traders should monitor official roster announcements and injury reports through 12 May, particularly regarding Colorado's key forwards and Minnesota's goaltending status. Schedule dependencies include potential back-to-back game fatigue, which affects both teams' conditioning. Recent performance trends—including points-per-game metrics from the preceding regular season and any playoff series context—remain relevant inputs for conditional order logic. Postponement risk exists but remains low given standard NHL scheduling protocols. For programmatic approaches, tracking line movement across major sportsbooks provides external validation of the crowd's 86% assessment, with significant divergence suggesting potential mispricing.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Resolution source: This market settles from the official publication at https://www.nhl.com/scores. A proposer submits the result to the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon, the two-hour challenge window opens, and the smart contract pays out in USDC.

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.