Golden Knights vs. Ducks

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The Vegas Golden Knights face the Anaheim Ducks in an NHL matchup scheduled for 10 May at 9:30PM ET, with settlement occurring shortly after final play concludes on 11 May. The 0% implied probability reflects either extreme confidence in one outcome or insufficient liquidity to establish meaningful odds. For programmatic traders, this market presents a calibration challenge: such extreme probabilities typically indicate either a data lag, a liquidity desert where no recent trades have occurred, or genuine consensus that one team is prohibitively favoured.

Historical precedent suggests examining comparable playoff or regular-season matchups between these franchises. The Golden Knights have generally held stronger regular-season records in recent years, though playoff dynamics differ substantially from regular-season performance. Traders evaluating this through conditional order logic should note that the settlement mechanism includes overtime and shootout scenarios, where a shootout victory adds one goal to the winning team's tally—a detail affecting both final-score markets and moneyline interpretation.

Key catalysts include roster availability announcements in the 48 hours preceding the match, injury reports affecting either team's starting lineup, and travel or weather disruptions that might trigger postponement clauses. Recent team form, goaltender performance metrics, and any schedule compression affecting rest days warrant monitoring through official NHL communications. Traders building automated systems should account for the 50-50 cancellation clause, which creates tail-risk exposure if either franchise faces unexpected operational issues.

Methodology

We track Golden Knights vs. Ducks on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.