Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Review UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Jordan Love: Passing Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Bijan Robinson: Rushing Yards O/U 59.5 | 100% |
| Bijan Robinson: Rushing Yards O/U 69.5 | 100% |
| Bijan Robinson: Rushing Yards O/U 89.5 | 100% |
| Bijan Robinson: Rushing Yards O/U 99.5 | 100% |
| Drake London: Receiving Yards O/U 49.5 | 100% |
| Matthew Golden: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 100% |
| Matthew Golden: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 100% |
| Matthew Golden: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 100% |
| Drake London: Receptions O/U 4.5 | 100% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Matthew Golden: Longest Reception O/U 19.5 | 100% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Passing Completions O/U 5.5 | 100% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Passing Completions O/U 7.5 | 100% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Passing Completions O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Olamide Zaccheaus: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Passing Yards O/U 99.5 | 100% |
| Bijan Robinson: Rushing Yards O/U 39.5 | 100% |
| Bijan Robinson: Rushing Yards O/U 49.5 | 100% |
| Bijan Robinson: Rushing Yards O/U 109.5 | 100% |
| Brian Robinson: Rushing Yards O/U 4.5 | 100% |
| Brian Robinson: Rushing Yards O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Brian Robinson: Rushing Yards O/U 14.5 | 100% |
| Brian Robinson: Rushing Yards O/U 19.5 | 100% |
| Brian Robinson: Rushing Yards O/U 24.5 | 100% |
| Bijan Robinson: Receiving Yards O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Drake London: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 100% |
| Drake London: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 100% |
| Matthew Golden: Receiving Yards O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receiving Yards O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 100% |
| Drake London: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Drake London: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 100% |
| Jahan Dotson: Receptions O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Olamide Zaccheaus: Receptions O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Skyy Moore: Receptions O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Bijan Robinson: Anytime Touchdown | 99% |
| Christian Watson: Anytime Touchdown | 99% |
| Bijan Robinson: Rushing Yards O/U 79.5 | 97% |
| Matthew Golden: Receiving Yards O/U 49.5 | 97% |
| Matthew Golden: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 97% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Yards O/U 149.5 | 95% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Passing Yards O/U 124.5 | 93% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Yards O/U 174.5 | 92% |
| Bijan Robinson: Rushing Yards O/U 119.5 | 92% |
| Matthew Golden: Receiving Yards O/U 59.5 | 90% |
| Drake London: Receptions O/U 5.5 | 90% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Attempts O/U 31.5 | 90% |
| Matthew Golden: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 89% |
| Brian Robinson: Rushing Yards O/U 29.5 | 88% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 88% |
| Drake London: Receiving Yards O/U 59.5 | 86% |
| Christian Watson: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 86% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Touchdowns O/U 1.5 | 82% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receptions O/U 4.5 | 80% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Yards O/U 224.5 | 79% |
| Skyy Moore: Receiving Yards O/U 9.5 | 78% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Yards O/U 199.5 | 77% |
| Drake London: Receiving Yards O/U 69.5 | 77% |
| Matthew Golden: Receiving Yards O/U 79.5 | 77% |
| Skyy Moore: Receiving Yards O/U 14.5 | 77% |
| Christian Watson: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 76% |
| Brian Robinson: Rushing Yards O/U 39.5 | 76% |
| Christian Watson: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 75% |
| MarShawn Lloyd: Rushing Yards O/U 14.5 | 75% |
| Matthew Golden: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 74% |
| Matthew Golden: Receiving Yards O/U 69.5 | 74% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receiving Yards O/U 49.5 | 72% |
| Kyle Pitts Sr.: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 71% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receptions O/U 5.5 | 71% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Yards O/U 249.5 | 69% |
| Drake London: Receiving Yards O/U 79.5 | 69% |
| Jahan Dotson: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 69% |
| Matthew Golden: Receiving Yards O/U 89.5 | 69% |
| Christian Watson: Receiving Yards O/U 49.5 | 68% |
| MarShawn Lloyd: Rushing Yards O/U 19.5 | 67% |
| Jahan Dotson: Receiving Yards O/U 14.5 | 67% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 66% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Passing Yards O/U 199.5 | 66% |
| Chris Brooks: Rushing Yards O/U 9.5 | 66% |
| Skyy Moore: Receiving Yards O/U 24.5 | 66% |
| Kyle Pitts Sr.: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 65% |
| Olamide Zaccheaus: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 65% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receiving Yards O/U 59.5 | 64% |
| Skyy Moore: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 64% |
| Christian Watson: Receiving Yards O/U 59.5 | 63% |
| Olamide Zaccheaus: Receiving Yards O/U 9.5 | 63% |
| Olamide Zaccheaus: Receiving Yards O/U 14.5 | 63% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Passing Yards O/U 174.5 | 62% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Passing Touchdowns O/U 1.5 | 62% |
| Matthew Golden: Receptions O/U 5.5 | 62% |
| Skyy Moore: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 62% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Yards O/U 274.5 | 61% |
| Drake London: Receiving Yards O/U 89.5 | 61% |
| MarShawn Lloyd: Rushing Yards O/U 24.5 | 61% |
| Drake London: Receptions O/U 6.5 | 60% |
| Chris Brooks: Rushing Yards O/U 14.5 | 60% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receiving Yards O/U 69.5 | 59% |
| Bijan Robinson: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 58% |
| Christian Watson: Receiving Yards O/U 69.5 | 57% |
| Christian Watson: 2+ Touchdowns | 57% |
| Matthew Golden: Anytime Touchdown | 57% |
| Drake London: Receiving Yards O/U 99.5 | 57% |
| Jahan Dotson: Receiving Yards O/U 24.5 | 57% |
| Bijan Robinson: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 56% |
| Tucker Kraft: Anytime Touchdown | 56% |
| Jonnu Smith: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 56% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Yards O/U 299.5 | 56% |
| Kaleb Johnson: Rushing Yards O/U 29.5 | 56% |
| Christian Watson: Receiving Yards O/U 79.5 | 56% |
| Drake London: Receptions O/U 8.5 | 56% |
| MarShawn Lloyd: Anytime Touchdown | 55% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Passing Yards O/U 224.5 | 55% |
| Chris Brooks: Rushing Yards O/U 19.5 | 55% |
| Jahan Dotson: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 55% |
| Kyle Pitts Sr.: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 53% |
| Austin Hooper: Anytime Touchdown | 53% |
| Chris Brooks: Anytime Touchdown | 53% |
| Kaleb Johnson: Anytime Touchdown | 53% |
| Chris Brooks: Rushing Yards O/U 24.5 | 53% |
| Christian Watson: Receiving Yards O/U 89.5 | 53% |
| Drake London: Receiving Yards O/U 109.5 | 53% |
| Kaleb Johnson: Rushing Yards O/U 39.5 | 52% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Yards O/U 324.5 | 52% |
| Christian Watson: Receiving Yards O/U 99.5 | 52% |
| Christian Watson: Receiving Yards O/U 109.5 | 52% |
| Jahan Dotson: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 52% |
| Olamide Zaccheaus: Receiving Yards O/U 24.5 | 52% |
| Olamide Zaccheaus: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 52% |
| Skyy Moore: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 52% |
| Kyle Pitts Sr.: Anytime Touchdown | 51% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Touchdowns O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Bijan Robinson: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Christian Watson: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Jahan Dotson: Receiving Yards O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Jayden Reed: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Jayden Reed: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Jayden Reed: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 50% |
| Jayden Reed: Receiving Yards O/U 49.5 | 50% |
| Jayden Reed: Receiving Yards O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| Kyle Pitts Sr.: Receiving Yards O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| Kyle Pitts Sr.: Receiving Yards O/U 69.5 | 50% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Bijan Robinson: Receptions O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Christian Watson: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Jayden Reed: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Jayden Reed: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Jayden Reed: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Kyle Pitts Sr.: Receptions O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Kyle Pitts Sr.: Receptions O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Austin Hooper: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Bijan Robinson: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Bo Melton: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Brian Robinson: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Chris Blair: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Chris Blair: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Chris Brooks: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Drake London: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| J. Michael Sturdivant: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| J. Michael Sturdivant: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Jahan Dotson: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Jahan Dotson: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Jayden Reed: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Jayden Reed: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Jonnu Smith: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Jonnu Smith: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Jordan Love: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Josh Whyle: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Josh Whyle: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Kaleb Johnson: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Kyle Pitts Sr.: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Mark Redman: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Mark Redman: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| MarShawn Lloyd: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Matthew Golden: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Nick Muse: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Nick Muse: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Olamide Zaccheaus: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Olamide Zaccheaus: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Skyy Moore: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Tucker Kraft: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Zachariah Branch: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Zachariah Branch: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Christian Watson: Longest Reception O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Drake London: Longest Reception O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Jayden Reed: Longest Reception O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Kyle Pitts Sr.: Longest Reception O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Tucker Kraft: Longest Reception O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Attempts O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Attempts O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Completions O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Completions O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Completions O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Austin Hooper: Team First TD (Atlanta Falcons) | 50% |
| Bijan Robinson: Team First TD (Atlanta Falcons) | 50% |
| Bo Melton: Team First TD (Green Bay Packers) | 50% |
| Brian Robinson: Team First TD (Atlanta Falcons) | 50% |
| Charlie Woerner: Team First TD (Atlanta Falcons) | 50% |
| Chris Blair: Team First TD (Atlanta Falcons) | 50% |
| Chris Brooks: Team First TD (Green Bay Packers) | 50% |
| Christian Watson: Team First TD (Green Bay Packers) | 50% |
| Drake London: Team First TD (Atlanta Falcons) | 50% |
| J. Michael Sturdivant: Team First TD (Green Bay Packers) | 50% |
| Jahan Dotson: Team First TD (Atlanta Falcons) | 50% |
| Jayden Reed: Team First TD (Green Bay Packers) | 50% |
| Jonnu Smith: Team First TD (Green Bay Packers) | 50% |
| Jordan Love: Team First TD (Green Bay Packers) | 50% |
| Josh Whyle: Team First TD (Green Bay Packers) | 50% |
| Kaleb Johnson: Team First TD (Green Bay Packers) | 50% |
| Kyle Pitts Sr.: Team First TD (Atlanta Falcons) | 50% |
| Mark Redman: Team First TD (Green Bay Packers) | 50% |
| MarShawn Lloyd: Team First TD (Green Bay Packers) | 50% |
| Matthew Golden: Team First TD (Green Bay Packers) | 50% |
| Nick Muse: Team First TD (Atlanta Falcons) | 50% |
| Olamide Zaccheaus: Team First TD (Atlanta Falcons) | 50% |
| Skyy Moore: Team First TD (Green Bay Packers) | 50% |
| Tucker Kraft: Team First TD (Green Bay Packers) | 50% |
| Zachariah Branch: Team First TD (Atlanta Falcons) | 50% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Passing Yards O/U 149.5 | 50% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Passing Yards O/U 249.5 | 50% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Passing Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Passing Touchdowns O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Passing Touchdowns O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Passing Attempts O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Passing Attempts O/U 31.5 | 50% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Passing Attempts O/U 35.5 | 50% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Team First TD (Atlanta Falcons) | 50% |
| Jonnu Smith: Receiving Yards O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Yards O/U 124.5 | 50% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Passing Yards O/U 274.5 | 50% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Passing Yards O/U 299.5 | 50% |
| Brian Robinson: Rushing Yards O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| Brian Robinson: Rushing Yards O/U 44.5 | 50% |
| Chris Brooks: Rushing Yards O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Chris Brooks: Rushing Yards O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| Kaleb Johnson: Rushing Yards O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Kaleb Johnson: Rushing Yards O/U 49.5 | 50% |
| Kaleb Johnson: Rushing Yards O/U 69.5 | 50% |
| Kaleb Johnson: Rushing Yards O/U 79.5 | 50% |
| MarShawn Lloyd: Rushing Yards O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| MarShawn Lloyd: Rushing Yards O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| MarShawn Lloyd: Rushing Yards O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| MarShawn Lloyd: Rushing Yards O/U 44.5 | 50% |
| Bijan Robinson: Receiving Yards O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| Bijan Robinson: Receiving Yards O/U 69.5 | 50% |
| Bijan Robinson: Receiving Yards O/U 79.5 | 50% |
| Jahan Dotson: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Jahan Dotson: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Jahan Dotson: Receiving Yards O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| Kyle Pitts Sr.: Receiving Yards O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Kyle Pitts Sr.: Receiving Yards O/U 79.5 | 50% |
| Olamide Zaccheaus: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Olamide Zaccheaus: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Skyy Moore: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Skyy Moore: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Bijan Robinson: Receptions O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Bijan Robinson: Receptions O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Jahan Dotson: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Jonnu Smith: Receptions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Jonnu Smith: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Matthew Golden: Receptions O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Skyy Moore: Receiving Yards O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| Bijan Robinson: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 46% |
| Bijan Robinson: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 40% |
| Kaleb Johnson: Rushing Yards O/U 19.5 | 38% |
| Christian Watson: Receptions O/U 4.5 | 34% |
| Drake London: Receptions O/U 7.5 | 34% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Touchdowns O/U 2.5 | 26% |
| Brian Robinson: Anytime Touchdown | 26% |
| Drake London: Anytime Touchdown | 26% |
| Bo Melton: 2+ Touchdowns | 23% |
| Kyle Pitts Sr.: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 22% |
| MarShawn Lloyd: Rushing Yards O/U 29.5 | 19% |
| Christian Watson: Receptions O/U 5.5 | 17% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receiving Yards O/U 79.5 | 14% |
| Kyle Pitts Sr.: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 13% |
| Kyle Pitts Sr.: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 13% |
| Bijan Robinson: Receiving Yards O/U 49.5 | 10% |
| MarShawn Lloyd: Rushing Yards O/U 39.5 | 10% |
| Chris Brooks: Rushing Yards O/U 29.5 | 8% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receiving Yards O/U 89.5 | 8% |
| Skyy Moore: Anytime Touchdown | 7% |
| Jonnu Smith: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 6% |
| Kyle Pitts Sr.: Receiving Yards O/U 49.5 | 5% |
| Charlie Woerner: 2+ Touchdowns | 5% |
| Jordan Love: Anytime Touchdown | 5% |
| Kaleb Johnson: Rushing Yards O/U 59.5 | 4% |
| Charlie Woerner: Anytime Touchdown | 1% |
Market context
Market consensus: 100% chance of falcons vs. packers - player props. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. Player prop markets for the NFL game between the Falcons and Packers, scheduled for September 24 at 8:15 PM ET.
Methodology
We track Falcons vs. Packers - Player Props across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Review UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
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