Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Review UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
93% | 7% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
93% | 7% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 197.5 | 93% |
| O/U 199.5 | 90% |
| Warriors O/U 92.5 | 90% |
| O/U 201.5 | 88% |
| Suns O/U 102.5 | 88% |
| O/U 203.5 | 86% |
| Warriors O/U 94.5 | 86% |
| Suns O/U 104.5 | 83% |
| O/U 205.5 | 82% |
| Warriors O/U 96.5 | 81% |
| O/U 207.5 | 80% |
| Suns O/U 106.5 | 77% |
| Spread -1.5 | 76% |
| O/U 209.5 | 76% |
| 1H O/U 90.5 | 76% |
| 1H O/U 92.5 | 76% |
| 1H O/U 94.5 | 75% |
| 1H O/U 96.5 | 75% |
| 1H O/U 98.5 | 75% |
| Warriors O/U 98.5 | 74% |
| Spread -2.5 | 72% |
| O/U 211.5 | 72% |
| 1H O/U 100.5 | 72% |
| Suns O/U 108.5 | 72% |
| Devin Booker: Points O/U 19.5 | 70% |
| Spread -3.5 | 69% |
| O/U 213.5 | 68% |
| Warriors O/U 100.5 | 68% |
| Suns O/U 110.5 | 67% |
| Spread -4.5 | 66% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 66% |
| O/U 215.5 | 64% |
| 3Q O/U 50.5 | 64% |
| Spread -5.5 | 63% |
| 1H O/U 102.5 | 63% |
| Warriors O/U 102.5 | 62% |
| O/U 217.5 | 61% |
| Suns O/U 112.5 | 61% |
| Spread -6.5 | 60% |
| Suns O/U 122.5 | 60% |
| 1H O/U 104.5 | 59% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 58% |
| 3Q O/U 52.5 | 58% |
| 4Q O/U 52.5 | 58% |
| Spread -7.5 | 56% |
| O/U 219.5 | 55% |
| Dillon Brooks: Points O/U 14.5 | 55% |
| Warriors O/U 104.5 | 55% |
| Spread -8.5 | 54% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 54% |
| Devin Booker: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 54% |
| Suns O/U 114.5 | 54% |
| Dillon Brooks: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 53% |
| Jalen Green: Assists O/U 3.5 | 53% |
| Khaman Maluach: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 53% |
| 3Q O/U 54.5 | 53% |
| O/U 221.5 | 51% |
| 1H O/U 106.5 | 51% |
| Khaman Maluach: Points O/U 14.5 | 51% |
| Dillon Brooks: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 51% |
| Khaman Maluach: Assists O/U 3.5 | 51% |
| Collin Gillespie: Steals O/U 2.5 | 51% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 51% |
| Warriors 2H O/U 53.5 | 51% |
| Team to Score First | 50% |
| Odd/Even Score | 50% |
| Overtime? | 50% |
| Race to 10 | 50% |
| Race to 20 | 50% |
| Race to 30 | 50% |
| Collin Gillespie: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Devin Booker: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Jalen Green: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Khaman Maluach: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Jalen Green: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Khaman Maluach: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Khaman Maluach: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Khaman Maluach: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Khaman Maluach: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Khaman Maluach: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Khaman Maluach: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Miles Bridges: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Devin Booker: Assists O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Khaman Maluach: Assists O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| Jalen Green: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Collin Gillespie: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Collin Gillespie: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Jalen Green: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Jalen Green: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Jalen Green: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Khaman Maluach: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Khaman Maluach: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Khaman Maluach: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -23.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 49.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 57.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 51.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 55.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 53.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 61.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 63.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 65.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 52.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 48.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 50.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 54.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 56.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| Warriors 1H O/U 46.5 | 50% |
| Warriors 1H O/U 48.5 | 50% |
| Warriors 1H O/U 50.5 | 50% |
| Warriors 1H O/U 52.5 | 50% |
| Warriors 2H O/U 49.5 | 50% |
| Warriors 2H O/U 51.5 | 50% |
| Warriors 2H O/U 55.5 | 50% |
| Warriors 2H O/U 57.5 | 50% |
| Suns 1H O/U 51.5 | 50% |
| Suns 1H O/U 53.5 | 50% |
| Suns 1H O/U 55.5 | 50% |
| Suns 1H O/U 57.5 | 50% |
| Suns 2H O/U 53.5 | 50% |
| Suns 2H O/U 55.5 | 50% |
| Suns 2H O/U 57.5 | 50% |
| Suns 2H O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| Suns 2H O/U 61.5 | 50% |
| Devin Booker: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Miles Bridges: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Spread -9.5 | 49% |
| Miles Bridges: Points O/U 14.5 | 49% |
| Miles Bridges: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 49% |
| Collin Gillespie: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Devin Booker: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Assists O/U 3.5 | 49% |
| 3Q O/U 58.5 | 49% |
| Warriors O/U 106.5 | 49% |
| Miles Bridges: Points O/U 9.5 | 48% |
| Miles Bridges: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 48% |
| Devin Booker: Assists O/U 9.5 | 48% |
| Dillon Brooks: Assists O/U 1.5 | 48% |
| Jalen Green: Assists O/U 1.5 | 48% |
| Collin Gillespie: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 48% |
| Collin Gillespie: Points O/U 24.5 | 48% |
| Miles Bridges: Points O/U 29.5 | 48% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 48% |
| Khaman Maluach: Points O/U 9.5 | 47% |
| Dillon Brooks: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 47% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Points O/U 9.5 | 47% |
| Spread -10.5 | 46% |
| O/U 223.5 | 46% |
| Devin Booker: Points O/U 14.5 | 46% |
| Dillon Brooks: Points O/U 9.5 | 46% |
| Collin Gillespie: Assists O/U 1.5 | 46% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Assists O/U 1.5 | 46% |
| Miles Bridges: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 46% |
| Devin Booker: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 45% |
| O/U 224.5 | 44% |
| 1H O/U 108.5 | 44% |
| Devin Booker: Points O/U 24.5 | 44% |
| Devin Booker: Assists O/U 5.5 | 44% |
| Jalen Green: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 44% |
| Miles Bridges: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 44% |
| Devin Booker: Points O/U 39.5 | 43% |
| Jalen Green: Points O/U 19.5 | 43% |
| Devin Booker: Assists O/U 3.5 | 43% |
| Miles Bridges: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 43% |
| Collin Gillespie: 3-Pointers Made O/U 6.5 | 43% |
| 4Q O/U 54.5 | 43% |
| Spread -11.5 | 42% |
| Jalen Green: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 42% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 42% |
| Warriors O/U 108.5 | 42% |
| O/U 225.5 | 41% |
| Miles Bridges: Assists O/U 1.5 | 41% |
| Jalen Green: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 41% |
| Jalen Green: 3-Pointers Made O/U 6.5 | 41% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 41% |
| 3Q O/U 56.5 | 41% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 41% |
| Jalen Green: Points O/U 14.5 | 40% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 40% |
| 4Q O/U 56.5 | 40% |
| 1H O/U 110.5 | 39% |
| Collin Gillespie: Assists O/U 3.5 | 38% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Points O/U 14.5 | 38% |
| Spread -13.5 | 37% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 37% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 37% |
| Suns 1H O/U 59.5 | 37% |
| O/U 227.5 | 36% |
| Collin Gillespie: Assists O/U 2.5 | 36% |
| Collin Gillespie: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 36% |
| Collin Gillespie: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 36% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Points O/U 29.5 | 36% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 36% |
| Warriors O/U 110.5 | 36% |
| Jalen Green: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 35% |
| Suns O/U 120.5 | 35% |
| O/U 229.5 | 33% |
| Miles Bridges: Assists O/U 2.5 | 33% |
| Collin Gillespie: Points O/U 9.5 | 33% |
| Dillon Brooks: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 33% |
| Warriors 1H O/U 54.5 | 33% |
| Spread -15.5 | 32% |
| Jalen Green: Points O/U 18.5 | 32% |
| Khaman Maluach: Rebounds O/U 8.5 | 32% |
| 3Q O/U 60.5 | 32% |
| Dillon Brooks: Points O/U 16.5 | 31% |
| O/U 231.5 | 30% |
| Collin Gillespie: Points O/U 10.5 | 30% |
| 1H O/U 112.5 | 30% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 30% |
| 1H Moneyline | 29% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 29% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 29% |
| Devin Booker: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 28% |
| Jalen Green: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 28% |
| 1H O/U 114.5 | 28% |
| Warriors O/U 112.5 | 28% |
| Jalen Green: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 27% |
| 1H Spread -11.5 | 27% |
| 1H O/U 116.5 | 27% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 27% |
| Spread -17.5 | 26% |
| O/U 233.5 | 26% |
| Khaman Maluach: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 26% |
| Miles Bridges: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 26% |
| 1H O/U 118.5 | 26% |
| 3Q O/U 62.5 | 25% |
| Warriors O/U 114.5 | 25% |
| Warriors vs. Suns | 24% |
| O/U 235.5 | 23% |
| Collin Gillespie: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 23% |
| 1H O/U 120.5 | 23% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 23% |
| Suns O/U 124.5 | 23% |
| Spread -19.5 | 22% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 22% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 22% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Points O/U 19.5 | 21% |
| O/U 237.5 | 20% |
| Dillon Brooks: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 20% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 20% |
| 1H O/U 122.5 | 20% |
| Spread -2.5 | 19% |
| Warriors O/U 116.5 | 19% |
| Spread -21.5 | 18% |
| O/U 239.5 | 18% |
| Dillon Brooks: Points O/U 19.5 | 18% |
| Devin Booker: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 18% |
| Suns O/U 126.5 | 18% |
| Miles Bridges: Assists O/U 3.5 | 17% |
| Jalen Green: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 16% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 16% |
| 1H Spread -15.5 | 16% |
| Spread -4.5 | 15% |
| Spread -23.5 | 15% |
| Miles Bridges: Points O/U 19.5 | 15% |
| Miles Bridges: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 15% |
| Collin Gillespie: Points O/U 14.5 | 14% |
| Devin Booker: Points O/U 29.5 | 14% |
| Jalen Green: Points O/U 24.5 | 14% |
| Devin Booker: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 14% |
| Dillon Brooks: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 14% |
| Collin Gillespie: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 14% |
| Miles Bridges: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 14% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 14% |
| Devin Booker: Assists O/U 7.5 | 13% |
| Jalen Green: Assists O/U 5.5 | 13% |
| Spread -6.5 | 12% |
| Spread -25.5 | 12% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Assists O/U 5.5 | 12% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 12% |
| Dillon Brooks: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 11% |
| Jalen Green: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 11% |
| Jalen Green: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.5 | 11% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Points O/U 24.5 | 11% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 11% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 11% |
| Spread -27.5 | 10% |
| Dillon Brooks: Assists O/U 3.5 | 10% |
| Devin Booker: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 10% |
| Dillon Brooks: Points O/U 29.5 | 10% |
| Khaman Maluach: Points O/U 19.5 | 10% |
| Collin Gillespie: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.5 | 10% |
| 1H Spread -19.5 | 10% |
| Spread -8.5 | 9% |
| Dillon Brooks: Points O/U 24.5 | 9% |
| Collin Gillespie: Assists O/U 5.5 | 9% |
| Collin Gillespie: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 9% |
| Jalen Green: Points O/U 34.5 | 9% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 9% |
| Spread -10.5 | 8% |
| Devin Booker: Points O/U 34.5 | 8% |
| Jalen Green: Points O/U 29.5 | 8% |
| Collin Gillespie: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 8% |
| Miles Bridges: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 8% |
| Spread -12.5 | 7% |
| Spread -29.5 | 7% |
| Collin Gillespie: Points O/U 19.5 | 7% |
| Miles Bridges: Points O/U 24.5 | 7% |
| Devin Booker: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 7% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 7% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 7% |
| Collin Gillespie: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 7% |
| Dillon Brooks: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 7% |
| Spread -31.5 | 6% |
| Spread -33.5 | 6% |
| O/U 251.5 | 6% |
| O/U 253.5 | 6% |
| Jalen Green: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 6% |
| Jalen Green: Assists O/U 7.5 | 6% |
| Miles Bridges: Assists O/U 5.5 | 6% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Assists O/U 7.5 | 6% |
| Devin Booker: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 6% |
| 1H Spread -12.5 | 6% |
| Spread -14.5 | 5% |
| Spread -16.5 | 5% |
| Dillon Brooks: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 5% |
| Collin Gillespie: Assists O/U 7.5 | 5% |
| Spread -18.5 | 2% |
| Spread -20.5 | 2% |
| Spread -22.5 | 2% |
Market context
Market consensus: 93% chance of warriors vs. suns. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for October 24 at 10:00PM ET: If the Warriors win, the market will resolve to "Warriors". If the Suns win, the market will resolve to "Suns". If…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $126K.
Methodology
Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
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