Nashville SC vs. New York City FC

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Nashville SC will host New York City FC in Major League Soccer on Saturday, 23 May 2026. The current crowd-implied probability of 25% suggests backing Nashville as the favoured outcome. Settlement closes early the following morning at 00:30 UTC, allowing roughly 24 hours post-match for official confirmation before resolution.

Historical MLS head-to-head records between these clubs offer limited predictive power given roster turnover and tactical evolution, but Nashville's home record in recent seasons has typically outperformed their away performance by 0.4–0.6 points per game. NYCFC's road form has been inconsistent, particularly in the Eastern Conference's second half. The 25% probability implies a roughly 3:1 odds ratio against Nashville, which aligns with typical home-field advantage in MLS when teams are evenly matched on paper. Traders should cross-reference current league standings and recent form (last five matches) as of late May to assess whether this probability reflects genuine underlying strength or market mispricing.

Key variables to monitor programmatically include team news on injuries or suspensions released 48–72 hours before kickoff, weather forecasts for Nashville (heat and humidity can affect play intensity), and any late lineup confirmations. MLS official channels and ESPN's injury reports typically publish updates by Friday afternoon. Conditional order logic could trigger position adjustments if either team announces a key player unavailable; such announcements historically shift market probabilities by 2–5 percentage points. Settlement will depend on official MLS records, making this a straightforward binary outcome with minimal dispute risk.

Methodology

We track Nashville SC vs. New York City FC on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.