Inter Miami CF vs. Philadelphia Union

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Inter Miami CF will face Philadelphia Union in an MLS regular-season fixture on 24 May 2026. The 45% implied probability for a Miami victory reflects a moderately competitive matchup, with settlement contingent on the final result at the conclusion of ninety minutes (plus any added time). This market closes at 23:00 UTC on the settlement date, allowing traders roughly until kick-off to adjust positions based on late team news.

Historical head-to-head records between these franchises show competitive balance, though Miami's recent investment in marquee talent and their Concacaf Champions League commitments create scheduling complexity. Philadelphia's home record at Subaru Park has traditionally been strong, and the Union's defensive stability under their current management structure suggests vulnerability to Miami's attacking depth only when Miami field their full complement. Comparable MLS fixtures involving teams with significant continental obligations—such as Toronto FC or LAFC in prior seasons—have seen probability shifts of 8–12 percentage points in the final forty-eight hours as injury confirmations and squad rotation decisions emerge.

Traders monitoring this market should track official team news releases for squad availability, particularly any late withdrawals for international duty or injury management. MLS fixture congestion in May often triggers rotation announcements on Friday or Saturday. Conditional order logic would benefit from tiering: setting execution thresholds at 50% (neutral reassessment) and 55% (lean toward Union value), with feeds pulling from official MLS communications and verified team social channels. Weather conditions at the venue and referee assignments, published seventy-two hours prior, occasionally shift betting patterns by 2–3 percentage points in markets with this probability distribution.

Methodology

We track Inter Miami CF vs. Philadelphia Union on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.