Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The Washington Nationals travel to Cleveland on 27 May for a single game against the Guardians, with first pitch at 1:10 PM ET. The current 9% implied probability for a Nationals victory reflects Cleveland's standing as the clear favourite, though the market's settlement window extends to 3 June to accommodate any postponements. For traders building conditional orders or monitoring this fixture programmatically, the key dependency is weather—late May in Cleveland can produce rain delays that shift momentum and bullpen usage patterns, particularly relevant given both teams' reliance on relief pitching depth through a compressed schedule.

The Nationals' recent form provides context for reading this probability. Washington has struggled through the 2024 season, whilst Cleveland maintains playoff contention and has demonstrated consistency against weaker opponents. Historical matchups between these franchises show the Guardians winning roughly 55% of encounters over the past three seasons, yet individual games remain volatile—single-game markets typically price in baseline strength differential rather than accounting for specific pitching matchups or roster absences. A trader evaluating this market should cross-reference the announced starting pitchers against recent ERA trends and check for any late roster moves, as injury announcements in the 24 hours before game time frequently shift implied probabilities by 3–5 percentage points.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.