St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The St. Louis Cardinals travel to Milwaukee on 25 May for a regular-season matchup against the Brewers, with first pitch at 2:10 PM ET. The current crowd-implied probability of 33% for a Cardinals victory reflects moderate confidence in the home team, though the settlement window extends to 1 June, allowing for postponement resolution should weather or scheduling disruptions occur.

Historical matchups between these division rivals show the Brewers have held a slight edge in recent seasons, winning approximately 52% of games since 2020. However, May performance data suggests both teams typically operate near .500 records at this stage, making early-season variance substantial. The Cardinals' record against Milwaukee in daytime games specifically—a relevant subset given the 2:10 PM start—has favoured neither side decisively, with win rates hovering around 48–50% across the past three seasons. This historical parity helps contextualise why the market has settled at 33% rather than reflecting a stronger consensus.

Traders monitoring this market programmatically should track lineup announcements 24 hours prior, as starting pitcher assignments materially shift win probabilities. Recent injury reports from both organisations' official channels and weather forecasts for Miller Park will influence late-position adjustments. The Brewers' home-field advantage typically adds 2–3 percentage points to their baseline win probability in aggregate models, though this effect diminishes in May when travel fatigue is minimal. Conditional order logic should account for postponement scenarios, which reset the market rather than triggering immediate settlement.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.