Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The Phillies host the Brewers on 13 June at 7:10 PM ET in Philadelphia. The current 40% probability assigned to a Phillies victory reflects a market view that favours Milwaukee, though the gap remains narrow enough to suggest meaningful uncertainty about the matchup. Settlement occurs by 20 June, allowing for postponement handling under MLB's standard rescheduling protocols.

Historical context matters here: the Phillies have won 52% of their head-to-head meetings against Milwaukee over the past five seasons, yet home-field advantage in June typically carries less predictive weight than late-season equivalents. Recent comparable matchups between division rivals at this stage of the season show crowd-implied probabilities clustering around 45–55% for the favoured side, suggesting the current 40% reading leans notably towards the Brewers. This positioning implies market participants are weighting Milwaukee's recent form or pitching matchup more heavily than Philadelphia's home status.

Traders monitoring this market programmatically should track starting pitcher announcements—typically confirmed 48 hours pre-game—and any roster moves or injury updates affecting either bullpen. Weather conditions at Citizens Bank Park can shift run-scoring expectations materially; June humidity in Philadelphia often favours fastball-heavy pitchers. Recent MLB injury reports and the Brewers' travel schedule (games preceding this fixture) represent live variables that conditional order systems should flag. The settlement window's seven-day buffer accommodates weather delays common in early summer, reducing cancellation risk relative to autumn scheduling.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Review UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Review UK?

Zero. Polymarket Review UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.