Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The Detroit Tigers face the Kansas City Royals on 10 May at 7:20 PM ET in a regular season MLB matchup. This market resolves based on the official final result, with provisions for postponement (market remains open until completion) and cancellation or ties (50-50 split). The settlement window extends to 17 May 2026, providing a week buffer for weather delays or makeup games common in early May baseball.

The 0% implied probability suggests either extreme confidence in one outcome or minimal trading activity. Historical context matters here: the Tigers and Royals occupy different competitive tiers, with Detroit typically fielding stronger rosters in recent seasons. However, single-game baseball outcomes carry inherent variance—home field advantage, bullpen availability, and weather conditions at Comerica Park or Kauffman Stadium can shift expected value substantially. Comparable May matchups between these franchises show win probabilities typically ranging 55–65% for the favoured side, rarely reaching the extremes this market currently displays.

Traders monitoring this market programmatically should track roster updates through official MLB injury reports, particularly starting pitcher confirmations and relief arm availability. Weather forecasts for Detroit on 10 May become material 48 hours before game time. Recent line movements from major sportsbooks provide calibration points—if conventional markets show 60% Tigers, the 0% reading here signals either data staleness or liquidity constraints. Conditional order logic should account for postponement scenarios, as makeup games sometimes shift to doubleheader slots with different pitching matchups, potentially altering expected outcomes.

Methodology

We track Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.