Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The Detroit Tigers face the Baltimore Orioles on 24 May at 1:35 PM ET in a regular-season MLB matchup. The current crowd-implied probability of 87% for a Tigers victory reflects substantial confidence in Detroit's performance, though the settlement window extends to 31 May to account for potential postponements. Traders automating conditional orders should note that this market resolves 50-50 only if the game is cancelled outright with no rescheduled make-up date, or if it ends in a tie—an exceptionally rare outcome in nine-inning baseball.

Historical context suggests that single-game MLB markets at this probability level typically reflect either a significant strength differential or home-field advantage combined with pitching matchup data. The Tigers' recent form, roster composition, and scheduled starter would ordinarily justify such confidence, though the Orioles' competitive standing within the AL East cannot be discounted. Comparable markets from prior seasons show that 87% probabilities in baseball frequently shift 5–10 percentage points once official lineups and weather conditions are confirmed 24 hours before first pitch.

Traders monitoring this market programmatically should track roster announcements, injury reports, and weather forecasts for Detroit's stadium through 23 May. Bullpen availability and recent offensive trends for both clubs typically drive late-stage repricing. The official MLB schedule and team injury reports remain the primary data sources for conditional order triggers, with resolution tied directly to MLB's official final statistics.

Methodology

We track Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.