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Cleveland Guardians vs. Minnesota Twins

Five-platform snapshot of "Cleveland Guardians vs. Minnesota Twins" — live Polymarket pricing, plus how Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold structure the same contract.

1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 86% 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 78% 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 65% O/U 7.5 57% Volume: $396K Liquidity: $627K Closes: 14 Jul 2026
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Cleveland Guardians vs. Minnesota Twins

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Polymarket Review UK) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 86% 14% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Trade this market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 86% 14% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Trade this market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Trade this market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Trade this market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Trade this market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
1st 5 Innings O/U 2.586%
1st 5 Innings O/U 3.578%
1st 5 Innings O/U 5.565%
O/U 7.557%
1st 5 Innings O/U 4.554%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Minnesota Twins53%
1st 5 Innings Spread -1.553%
1st 5 Innings Spread -1.553%
1st 5 Innings Spread -2.550%
1st 5 Innings Spread -2.550%
1st 5 Innings O/U 6.550%
Extra Innings50%
O/U 8.549%
Spread -1.539%
Spread -1.530%
NRFI0%

Market context

Cleveland Guardians vs. Minnesota Twins — current market-implied probability: 86%. In the upcoming MLB game between the Cleveland Guardians and Minnesota Twins, scheduled for July 7 at 7:40PM ET: This market will resolve to "Cleveland Guardians" if the Cleveland Guardians win the g…

Live Data & Statistics

The Polymarket order book prices 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 at 86% for "Cleveland Guardians vs. Minnesota Twins".

1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 86% Other 14%

Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $396K.

Methodology

This page reviews Cleveland Guardians vs. Minnesota Twins across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?
Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
How fast are USDC deposits?
Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
Do I need to KYC for this market?
On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Review UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
How reliable are the quoted odds?
The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
James WilliamsJames WilliamsPrediction Market AnalystandDavid ParkDavid ParkSports Data Analyst

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