Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The Cubs face the Pirates on 25 May at 1:35PM ET in a regular-season MLB matchup. The current 53% implied probability for a Cubs victory reflects a relatively tight contest, with settlement occurring after the game concludes on or before 1 June 2026. Postponement would extend the market's duration; cancellation without a rescheduled fixture would trigger a 50-50 split resolution.

Historical Cubs-Pirates records show the Cubs have maintained a winning record against Pittsburgh over recent seasons, though the Pirates have demonstrated capacity for competitive performances in divisional play. The 53% probability sits near the midpoint for matchups between teams of comparable strength, suggesting the market has priced in neither team as a clear favourite. For traders building conditional logic around this fixture, the baseline probability serves as a reference point against which lineup announcements, weather forecasts, and bullpen availability will shift the odds.

Traders monitoring this market should track starting pitcher assignments and any late roster changes announced within 24 hours of first pitch. Recent injury reports or weather conditions affecting Wrigley Field could shift the probability materially. Programmatic approaches would benefit from integrating official MLB injury updates and real-time weather data feeds, as these catalysts historically move markets in baseball fixtures. The settlement window's extension to early June accommodates potential rain delays common to late May scheduling in the Midwest.

Methodology

We track Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.