Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying event is the Major League Baseball game between the Arizona Diamondbacks and the St. Louis Cardinals, scheduled for 7:45pm ET on 24 June 2026 at the Cardinals’ home stadium. The Arizona Diamondbacks (40–39) face the St. Louis Cardinals (42–35), with the Cardinals holding a slight edge in home performance, having gone 22–18 in home games this season[8].

Historically, 100% implied probability in MLB win markets is exceptionally rare and typically signals either a data error or a market that has not yet incorporated live odds; comparable cases show that when odds are live, the Cardinals sit at 53% and the Diamondbacks at 48%, contradicting the 100% figure[1][4]. Programmatic traders should flag this discrepancy as a potential arbitrage opportunity or a failed conditional order, since live markets consistently price the Cardinals above the Diamondbacks with a 51.9% win chance[4].

Key catalysts include the final starting pitcher announcements, which often shift win probabilities by 5–10% in MLB games, and any weather delays that could postpone the match[6]. The Athletic notes that BetMGM odds were active pre-game, confirming that live pricing exists and the 100% figure is likely a stale or erroneous snapshot[9]. Traders monitoring this market programmatically should set alerts for pitcher lineups and real-time odds feeds to capture the true implied probability before settlement.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.