LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Weibo Gaming, a top-tier LPL organisation, faces Ninjas in Pyjamas in a best-of-three League of Legends match within the LPL Group Ascend format. The fixture is scheduled for 10 May at 05:00 ET, with settlement closing at 15:00 the same day. This represents a significant time constraint for traders—the five-hour window between match completion and market closure leaves minimal margin for delayed results or technical disputes to be resolved before settlement locks.

The 84% implied probability heavily favours Weibo Gaming, reflecting their established position within China's professional league ecosystem. Comparable LPL matchups involving established Chinese organisations against international challengers typically see similar probability distributions, though Ninjas in Pyjamas' competitive standing and recent form matter substantially. Historical precedent suggests that matches between LPL regulars and visiting international teams settle according to regional strength differentials, though upset potential remains non-trivial in best-of-three formats where meta shifts or individual player performance can swing series.

Traders should monitor official LPL scheduling confirmations and any roster changes announced before 10 May, particularly regarding Weibo Gaming's starting lineup. Patch notes released in the days preceding the match could alter champion viability and preparation requirements. The settlement mechanism's tie-resolution clause (50-50 split) becomes operationally relevant only if technical issues prevent completion; conditional order automation should account for the hard 15:00 ET deadline, as delayed results post-settlement window will not trigger standard resolution pathways.

Methodology

This page reviews LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.