Market statistics
- Total volume
- $1.2M
- 24h volume
- $1.2M
- Liquidity
- $1.8M
- Open interest
- $904K
Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Available prediction outcomes (11)
Sorted by descending live probability. Click any outcome to trade it on PolyGram.
Market context
More markets for the La Liga game, scheduled for May 14 at 3:30 PM ET.
Wikipedia Context
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Real Madrid CFReal Madrid Club de Fútbol, commonly referred to as Real Madrid, is a Spanish professional association football club based in Madrid. The club competes in La Liga, the top tier of Spanish football.
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Real Madrid Castilla
Real Madrid Castilla Club de Fútbol or Real Madrid B is a Spanish football team that plays in Primera Federación – Group 1. It is Real Madrid's reserve team. They play their home games at the Alfredo Di Stéfano Stadium with a capacity of 6,000 seats.
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Real Madrid BaloncestoReal Madrid Baloncesto is a Spanish professional basketball club that was founded in 1931, as a division of Real Madrid CF. They play domestically in the Liga ACB, and internationally in the EuroLeague. They are widely regarded as one of the greatest basketball clubs in Europe. Real Madrid currently ranks fourth in the European professional basketball club r
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Real Madrid Femenino
Real Madrid Femenino is a Spanish professional women’s football club based in Madrid, competing in the Primera División, the highest level of women’s football in Spain. Founded in 2014 as the independent Club Deportivo TACÓN, the team entered into a merger and acquisition process with Real Madrid CF in 2019. Upon the completion of this integration, it was of
Methodology
Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.
Resolution & payout
Resolution source: This market settles from the official publication at https://www.laliga.com/. A proposer submits the result to the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon, the two-hour challenge window opens, and the smart contract pays out in USDC.
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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