Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The Los Angeles Sparks face the Phoenix Mercury on 13 June at 10:00 PM ET in a regular-season WNBA matchup. Settlement occurs at 02:00 UTC on 14 June, with the market resolving to whichever team posts the higher final score, including any overtime periods. The current 100% implied probability for a YES resolution indicates traders are pricing near-certainty that the game will proceed as scheduled rather than face postponement or cancellation.

Historical WNBA scheduling data shows regular-season games rarely encounter full cancellations without rescheduling; postponements typically occur only for severe weather or venue emergencies. The Sparks and Mercury have met consistently across recent seasons, with neither franchise carrying a pattern of fixture disruptions. Comparable markets on WNBA contests typically see the binary outcome (game occurs vs. does not) resolve YES in excess of 99% of cases, making the current probability consistent with baseline expectations for a mid-June fixture with no reported complications.

Traders monitoring this market programmatically should track official WNBA communications and venue status updates through 12 June. The Phoenix area's monsoon season technically begins in early July, so weather risk remains minimal for mid-June. Key dependencies include player availability announcements—both franchises have published injury reports—and any last-minute scheduling adjustments from the league office. Conditional order logic should account for the 50-50 resolution clause only triggering if the league formally cancels without a make-up date, a scenario that would require explicit confirmation rather than mere postponement.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Review UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.