UFC Fight Night: Bruno Silva vs. Édgar Cháirez (Flyweight, Prelims)

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Bruno Silva and Édgar Cháirez are scheduled to compete in a flyweight preliminary bout at UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim on 6 June 2026. The market resolves based on the official UFC result, with a 50-50 settlement if the bout ends in a draw, no contest, or cancellation beyond 20 June. The current 0% implied probability for Silva reflects either minimal trading activity or strong market consensus favouring Cháirez, though such extreme readings often indicate low liquidity rather than certainty.

Historical precedent suggests preliminary flyweight bouts carry higher cancellation and rescheduling risk than main-card fights, particularly when fighters face late injury or weight-cut complications. Silva's record and recent form would typically anchor baseline expectations, but without recent fight data or injury reports available, the market's extreme skew warrants scrutiny. Comparable preliminary matchups on similar UFC Fight Night cards have seen resolution delays when fighters withdraw, pushing settlement into the 50-50 window.

Traders monitoring this market should track official UFC roster updates and weigh-in confirmations as the event approaches. Any fighter withdrawal or injury announcement would shift settlement probability toward 50-50 rather than favouring either competitor. For algorithmic traders, the low probability reading suggests either a data gap or a market inefficiency; conditional orders tied to official UFC injury reports or weigh-in cancellations would capture tail-risk scenarios more reliably than directional bets at current odds.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Review UK?

Zero. Polymarket Review UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.