Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Review UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
88% | 12% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
88% | 12% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Anthony Wint vs. Terrance Chatman | 88% |
| Fight won by KO/TKO? | 80% |
| Wint to win by KO/TKO? | 75% |
| O/U 0.5 Rounds | 61% |
| O/U 1.5 Rounds | 32% |
| O/U 2.5 Rounds | 18% |
| Fight won by submission? | 12% |
| Fight to Go the Distance? | 11% |
| Chatman to win by KO/TKO? | 7% |
Market context
Anthony Wint’s heavyweight debut against Terrance Chatman sits on the same UFC Fight Night card headlined by Anthony Hernandez v Gregory Rodrigues in Sacramento on 22 August 2026, with the bout listed on the main card and broadly treated as a scheduled, normal three-round heavyweight fight.[1][2][3] The market’s 88% YES price reads like a strong favourite line rather than a binary certainty, especially at heavyweight where short-notice bouts, late medical issues, and missed-weight outcomes can still move settlement from a straight win to 50-50 if the contest is altered or does not occur as booked.[1][3]
For programmatic traders, the useful framing is to key off the UFC’s official bout status, not pre-fight commentary: the main decision points are whether the fight stays on the card, whether it is officially contested, and whether the result is read as Wint, Chatman, or a non-result.[1][2] Comparable market behaviour on UFC prelims often tightens near fight time when debutants carry heavy favourite pricing, but settlement risk remains concentrated in late scratches, bout rebooking, or an administrative change to no contest or postponement beyond the window.[1][2][3] Recent coverage also placed the prelims and main card on Paramount+ timing, so a trader running conditional orders would typically watch the official card order and any last-minute UFC bout announcements before the settlement cut-off.[2][3]
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $118K.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
Trade UFC Fight Night: Anthony Wint vs. Terrance Chatman (… on Polymarket Review UK
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