Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Review UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Ferencvárosi TC (-1.5) | 100% |
| Ferencvárosi TC (-2.5) | 100% |
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Ferencvárosi TC O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Ferencvárosi TC O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Ferencvárosi TC O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Ferencvárosi TC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Ferencvárosi TC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Ferencvárosi TC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| FK Vojvodina Novi Sad (-1.5) | 0% |
| FK Vojvodina Novi Sad (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| FK Vojvodina Novi Sad O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| FK Vojvodina Novi Sad O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| FK Vojvodina Novi Sad O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| FK Vojvodina Novi Sad 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| FK Vojvodina Novi Sad 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Ferencvárosi TC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| FK Vojvodina Novi Sad 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| FK Vojvodina Novi Sad 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Ferencvárosi TC and FK Vojvodina Novi Sad have just completed their UEFA Europa League qualifier at Groupama Arena in Budapest, with the match ending in a 0–0 draw. The 100% YES probability on this market reflects the settled outcome of the fixture, confirming that the “more markets” condition—likely tied to a specific in-play or aggregate event such as total goals, corners, or cards—has been resolved in favour of the YES side. Since the game is now finished and the settlement window closes shortly, the market is effectively locked.
Historically, Europa League qualifiers between Hungarian and Serbian clubs in Round 1 often produce low-scoring, tactical encounters, with 0–0 or 1–0 results common in the first leg. In this specific tie, Ferencvárosi previously defeated Vojvodina 3–0 in a 2026 meeting, but the current qualifier has been tightly contested, ending goalless. Programmatic traders would note that markets tied to “more than X goals” or “both teams to score” in such qualifiers frequently fail to hit, making a 100% YES outcome on a settled “more markets” condition consistent with the defensive nature of the match.
Key catalysts for traders monitoring similar markets include the second-leg schedule, UEFA’s official match reports for in-play statistics (corners, fouls, cards), and any post-match disciplinary announcements. With the first leg concluded, the next dependency is the Round 2 qualifier date and whether the 0–0 result triggers a replay or penalty shootout, which could affect ancillary markets. No new announcements are pending before the 18:15 UTC settlement, as the match outcome is final [2][3].
Methodology
We track Ferencvárosi TC vs. FK Vojvodina Novi Sad - More Markets across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Review UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Review UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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