Derry City FC vs. PFK CSKA Sofia

Platform comparison

Market context

Derry City FC and PFK CSKA Sofia completed their second-leg UEFA Europa League clash on 16 July 2026, with CSKA Sofia advancing 5–3 on aggregate after a 3–2 first-leg victory in Bulgaria [1][3]. The match finished with three total goals, confirming the over/under 2.5 market as a win for over bettors, while CSKA Sofia secured the result at -106 odds [2]. With the fixture already concluded and the aggregate outcome settled, the prediction market’s 0% YES probability correctly reflects the event’s finality rather than any uncertainty about the result.

Historically, prediction markets tied to completed football matches settle at 0% or 100% immediately post-event, as no unresolved variables remain to shift probabilities. Comparable cases from past Europa League second legs show that once the aggregate score is confirmed and the away team advances, conditional trading bots and copy-trading scripts automatically liquidate positions, treating the market as resolved [1]. Programmatic traders would flag this market as closed, disabling any automated entry orders or stop-loss triggers that depend on live odds movement.

Traders should monitor official UEFA settlement notices and club announcements confirming the aggregate result, though these are now redundant given the live score confirmation [1]. No further catalysts exist: the schedule dependency is fulfilled, and no replay or disciplinary dependency alters the outcome. Recent coverage from ESPN and FOX Sports confirms the final score and aggregate advance, removing any ambiguity for algorithmic settlement logic [1][2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3

Methodology

This page reviews Derry City FC vs. PFK CSKA Sofia across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Review UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.