Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Review UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| PFK Levski Sofia O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| PFK Levski Sofia 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| PFK Levski Sofia (-1.5) | 0% |
| Universitatea Craiova CS (-1.5) | 0% |
| PFK Levski Sofia (-2.5) | 0% |
| Universitatea Craiova CS (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| PFK Levski Sofia O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| PFK Levski Sofia O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Universitatea Craiova CS O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Universitatea Craiova CS O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Universitatea Craiova CS O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| PFK Levski Sofia 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Universitatea Craiova CS 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Universitatea Craiova CS 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| PFK Levski Sofia 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| PFK Levski Sofia 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Universitatea Craiova CS 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Universitatea Craiova CS 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Levski Sofia are at home to Universitatea Craiova in the UEFA Champions League qualifying second round, with Sky Sports listing a 6:30pm Wednesday kick-off at Georgi Asparuhov Stadium and the match level at 0-0 in their pre-match stats view.[1] For a “more markets” prediction market, that matters because the event is not a single binary result but a bundle of derivative outcomes that usually tracks line-up news, goal timing, and qualification states more than headline match winner sentiment.
Historically, markets like this are best read through the lens of low-scoring qualifier dynamics rather than any one team’s brand. FootyStats’ head-to-head model page shows very similar attacking estimates for the fixture, with xG figures clustered around 1.68 and 1.67, which points to a relatively even tie and limited room for one-sided pricing once the market starts to update.[2] In programme terms, that usually means a bot or conditional-order workflow should watch for sharp repricing only when the pre-match probabilities shift after confirmed line-ups, rather than assuming early crowd sentiment is informative.
The main catalysts are the official team sheets, any schedule change from organisers, and whether the market is actually referencing full-time, aggregate, or qualification-related sub-markets inside the broader fixture. Because the settlement window ends at 17:30Z, traders need to map timestamps carefully against the 6:30pm local kick-off and confirm which auxiliary markets remain open once play begins.[1] If there is no fresh team-news shock or venue disruption, the probability often stays anchored until the first confirmed line-up scrape or a live in-play trigger moves the underlying match state.[1][2]
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Review UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
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