Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Review UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
97% | 3% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
97% | 3% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 97% |
| IK Sirius O/U 0.5 | 94% |
| O/U 1.5 | 88% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 86% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 81% |
| IK Sirius 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 76% |
| IK Sirius O/U 1.5 | 74% |
| O/U 2.5 | 69% |
| IK Sirius 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 68% |
| IF Brommapojkarna O/U 0.5 | 62% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 60% |
| Both Teams to Score | 57% |
| IK Sirius (-1.5) | 51% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 48% |
| IK Sirius O/U 2.5 | 48% |
| O/U 3.5 | 47% |
| IK Sirius 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 44% |
| IF Brommapojkarna 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 42% |
| IF Brommapojkarna 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 34% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 33% |
| IK Sirius 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 32% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 32% |
| IK Sirius (-2.5) | 30% |
| O/U 4.5 | 28% |
| IF Brommapojkarna O/U 1.5 | 24% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 23% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 21% |
| O/U 5.5 | 14% |
| IF Brommapojkarna 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 12% |
| IF Brommapojkarna 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 9% |
| IF Brommapojkarna O/U 2.5 | 7% |
| IF Brommapojkarna (-1.5) | 3% |
| IF Brommapojkarna (-2.5) | 1% |
Market context
IK Sirius meet IF Brommapojkarna in the Allsvenskan, and the “more markets” line is really about whether the contest generates enough trading surface for derivative propositions rather than the match result itself. With the crowd at 51% YES, the market is priced almost exactly on the fence, which is the sort of level that usually reflects uncertainty over what secondary books, goal totals, cards, corners, or player-related sub-markets will be posted before kick-off. [4][11]
For context, this fixture has tended to produce clean directional signals for Sirius in the head-to-head, with Sirius winning 9 of the last 12 meetings according to FootyStats, while several recent scorelines have also been open enough to support multiple live and pre-match angles. BBC’s Allsvenskan feed also records Sirius as strong in the league table and notes the sides’ recent meeting on 12 July 2026, which is useful when back-testing whether this pairing tends to attract extra market depth on repeat fixtures. A power-user would typically treat the current 51% as a low-conviction signal and model it against historical availability of lines for this exact matchup. [5][7]
The practical catalysts are straightforward: lineup releases, confirmed referee assignment, and whether the operator posts a fuller in-play menu as kickoff approaches. Live match pages from Sofascore, Flashscore, ESPN and Fox Sports show the fixture is active on 10 August 2026, so any late change in squad status or betting board coverage could quickly shift the probability for “more markets” rather than the footballing outcome itself. Programmatically, this is the sort of market that is usually monitored through scheduled checks before kickoff and then updated only if the listing count, market types, or live availability changes materially. [1][4][11][12]
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
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