Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Review UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
97% | 3% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
97% | 3% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 97% |
| O/U 1.5 | 88% |
| Inter Miami CF O/U 0.5 | 84% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 81% |
| CF Montréal O/U 0.5 | 77% |
| Inter Miami CF 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 75% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 71% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 71% |
| O/U 2.5 | 67% |
| Both Teams to Score | 66% |
| Inter Miami CF O/U 1.5 | 62% |
| CF Montréal O/U 1.5 | 56% |
| Inter Miami CF 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 56% |
| CF Montréal 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 53% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 50% |
| CF Montréal 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| CF Montréal 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| CF Montréal 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Inter Miami CF 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Inter Miami CF 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| O/U 3.5 | 45% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 45% |
| Inter Miami CF (-1.5) | 28% |
| Inter Miami CF O/U 2.5 | 28% |
| O/U 4.5 | 27% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 20% |
| CF Montréal O/U 2.5 | 19% |
| Inter Miami CF (-2.5) | 14% |
| O/U 5.5 | 14% |
| CF Montréal (-1.5) | 10% |
| CF Montréal (-2.5) | 3% |
Market context
CF Montréal vs. Inter Miami CF - More Markets. The market is currently pricing the outcome at 10% YES, meaning crowd-implied probability sits at that level. Settlement is scheduled for 2026-07-25T23:30:00Z. Unlike a sportsbook, the price you see is set by buyers and sellers competing in a live order book — there is no house edge or bookmaker margin to fade.
Sports outcome markets resolve from official league data once the contest finishes. Pricing typically tightens through the warm-up window as line-ups, weather, and starting-pitcher data become public, then moves on goals or runs in real time.
Watch for the underlying catalysts that move this category: each official announcement, dataset release, or scheduled milestone generally produces a step change in the implied probability. Trades execute instantly on Polygon, and shares pay $1 each at resolution if your side wins.
Methodology
We track CF Montréal vs. Inter Miami CF - More Markets across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Review UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
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