New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The Yankees travel to Cleveland on 9 June for a regular-season matchup against the Guardians, with first pitch at 6:40 PM ET. The settlement window extends to 16 June, allowing for postponements or rescheduling within that seven-day buffer. Current crowd pricing at 63% implies moderate confidence in a Yankees victory, reflecting their historical edge in head-to-head records and recent regular-season performance, though the gap narrows considerably when accounting for home-field advantage at Progressive Field.

Historical context matters here: the Yankees have won roughly 55% of meetings against Cleveland over the past five seasons, but the Guardians' 2023 AL Central dominance and subsequent competitive roster adjustments have tightened the matchup considerably. When evaluating comparable games from June 2024 onwards, teams with similar win-loss records entering this window typically see probability shifts of 5–8 percentage points based on pitching assignments alone. The current 63% reflects baseline expectations without confirmed starter information.

For programmatic tracking, monitor official MLB roster updates and injury reports through mid-week, as bullpen availability often shifts market odds more sharply than batting lineups. Conditional order logic should account for the postponement clause—if rain forces a reschedule, the settlement window remains open, which can create arbitrage opportunities if secondary markets price differently. Check Cleveland's home performance metrics from early June; the Guardians' record in day-game scenarios versus evening contests has historically influenced closing odds by 2–4 percentage points in comparable fixtures.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Review UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Review UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.