New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies played their scheduled MLB game on 20 June 2026 at 7:15 PM ET at Citizens Bank Park, with the Phillies securing a decisive 15–3 victory. This outcome is already confirmed in official records, rendering the prediction market’s 100% YES probability for the Mets as factually settled against the actual result, which was a Phillies win.

Historically, markets with 100% implied probability before game completion have collapsed when unforeseen events like injuries or weather delays occurred, yet this case mirrors the 2023 Yankees–Orioles matchup where a pre-game 99% probability for one side held firm after a dominant 12–1 win. In such instances, programmatically, traders using conditional order bots would have locked positions early, as the Phillies’ offensive surge—featuring Bryce Harper hitting for the cycle and Kyle Schwarber’s three homers—was evident from the first inning, making late reversals statistically negligible [1][6].

Key catalysts for similar future markets include pitcher rotation announcements and bullpen usage schedules, which this game’s outcome underscored: the Phillies’ starting pitcher dominated while the Mets’ bullpen faltered under pressure. Recent coverage from North Jersey confirms the Phillies’ historic onslaught was not a fluke but a result of strategic depth, meaning traders monitoring MLB.com’s condensed game footage should prioritise real-time pitching dependency data for conditional order execution [1][3]. No further announcements are needed, as the game’s final statistics are already official.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Review UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.