Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The Detroit Tigers face the Chicago White Sox on 31 May at 2:10PM ET in a regular-season MLB matchup. The current 0% implied probability for a Tigers victory reflects either strong market consensus favouring Chicago or minimal trading activity on this particular fixture. Given the settlement window extends to 7 June, there remains scope for position adjustments if either team's roster status shifts materially before game time.

Historical context matters when evaluating such skewed probabilities. The Tigers and White Sox have traded dominance across recent seasons, with neither franchise establishing consistent superiority. In 2024, both clubs occupy mid-table positions in their respective divisions, suggesting comparable competitive strength. A 0% reading typically indicates either illiquidity in the order book or a sharp consensus that has priced out contrarian positions entirely. Traders using conditional orders or algorithmic monitoring should note that such extreme probabilities often signal thin market depth rather than certainty.

The key variables for programmatic tracking include starting pitcher announcements, which typically arrive 24–48 hours before game time, and any late roster moves affecting either team's availability. Weather conditions at Comerica Park can influence game dynamics materially, particularly for day games. MLB injury reports released daily through official channels should feed into any automated valuation models. Postponement risk exists through the settlement window, meaning traders relying on fixed-date assumptions face execution uncertainty if weather forces rescheduling.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Review UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.