Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The Chicago Cubs and New York Mets are set to play a Major League Baseball game on 23 June at Citi Field, with the Cubs favoured to win. This single contest forms the primary resolution source for the prediction market, where a Cubs victory settles the outcome to "Chicago Cubs" and a Mets win settles it to "New York Mets". If the game is postponed, the market remains open until completion; if cancelled entirely or tied, it resolves 50–50.

Historically, when a team carries a moneyline of -196 against a +162 opponent, the implied probability of winning sits near 66%, yet the current crowd-implied probability of 0% YES suggests a severe mispricing or a data anomaly rather than a genuine 0% chance of a Cubs win. Comparable cases in MLB markets show that such extreme divergences often stem from liquidity gaps, bot errors, or delayed price updates following a sudden injury announcement, rather than an actual impossibility of the event occurring.

Traders approaching this programmatically should monitor real-time roster updates, particularly starting pitcher confirmations, as a late scratch could shift the moneyline dramatically. Key catalysts include the official MLB injury report released before 7:10 PM ET and any weather advisories for Citi Field, which could force a postponement. Recent analysis from Doc’s Sports notes the Cubs are favoured at -196 with an over/under of 8, reinforcing that the 0% probability is inconsistent with current expert picks and odds data[1]. Conditional order bots should be set to trigger only upon verified confirmation of a Cubs win via the official ESPN live score feed[6].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Review UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Review UK?

Zero. Polymarket Review UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Review UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.