Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying real-world event is the MLB game between the Atlanta Braves and San Francisco Giants, played on 28 June 2026 at Oracle Park, where the Giants won 3–2 in a late-inning finish[2]. This result ended a tight series, with the Braves taking the opener 3–1 on 26 June before losing the next two matches[4][1]. The crowd-implied probability of 0% YES for the Braves reflects this immediate outcome, as the game has already concluded and the resolution is fixed.

Historically, when a market’s probability collapses to 0% after a game’s completion, it signals a settled event rather than a predictive gap; comparable cases in MLB prediction markets show similar collapses once final scores are confirmed by official sources[6]. Programmatic traders would treat this as a closed position, avoiding conditional orders that assume uncertainty, since the resolution source—the official final statistics—is already definitive[9].

Traders should monitor any announcements regarding game cancellations or make-up rules, though none apply here as the event is complete. Recent coverage confirms the final score and player performances, including Ray’s pitching record for the Giants[2]. No further catalysts exist, as the settlement window ends after the game’s conclusion, and the market will resolve to the Giants with certainty[1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Review UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.