United States vs. Paraguay - Exact Score

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The United States and Paraguay will meet in a World Cup group-stage fixture on 12 June 2026, with the match kicking off at 9:00 PM ET. This market requires exact-score prediction, settling only on the final whistle after regulation time and stoppage; any outcome not explicitly listed resolves to "Any Other Score." The 10% implied probability reflects the specificity required—correctly naming both teams' goals across 90+ minutes is inherently difficult, making any single scoreline a low-probability event by design.

Historical World Cup matchups between these nations provide limited precedent; they last met in 2016 Copa América play, where the US won 1–0. Paraguay has qualified for the 2026 tournament but typically operates as a defensive, counter-attacking side, whilst the US squad will likely field attacking depth. Comparable group-stage fixtures involving favourites against mid-tier opponents show that 1–0, 2–0, and 2–1 results cluster around 15–20% each when listed individually, with "Any Other Score" capturing 40–50% of probability mass. The 10% current reading suggests the market is pricing this as a relatively open encounter, possibly reflecting uncertainty over final squad composition or tactical setup.

Traders monitoring this market should track squad announcements from both federations, expected in early 2026, and any late injury news closer to the fixture date. Conditional-order logic would benefit from linking this market to related outcomes—US group advancement odds or Paraguay qualification probabilities—since a heavy US victory would correlate with broader tournament positioning. The settlement window closes 2026-06-13 at 01:00 UTC, allowing roughly seven hours post-match for official confirmation before resolution.

Methodology

We track United States vs. Paraguay - Exact Score on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Review UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.