Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Review UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Leandro Trossard: 1+ assists | 100% |
| Timothy Castagne: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 1+ goals | 100% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 2+ goals | 100% |
| Malik Tillman: 1+ goals | 100% |
| Leandro Trossard: 1+ goals + assists | 99% |
| Malik Tillman: 1+ shots | 99% |
| Malik Tillman: 1+ goals + assists | 94% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 1+ goals + assists | 92% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 1+ shots | 83% |
| Folarin Balogun: 2+ shots | 82% |
| Leandro Trossard: 1+ shots | 79% |
| Youri Tielemans: 1+ shots | 77% |
| Malik Tillman: 1+ shots on target | 76% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 2+ goals + assists | 76% |
| Christian Pulisic: 1+ shots | 71% |
| Leandro Trossard: 2+ shots | 71% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ shots | 67% |
| Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals + assists | 59% |
| Christian Pulisic: 3+ shots | 58% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 2+ shots | 58% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ goals + assists | 56% |
| Christian Pulisic: 1+ goals + assists | 55% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 3+ shots | 54% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 1+ shots | 54% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 3+ goals | 54% |
| Folarin Balogun: 1+ shots | 53% |
| Youri Tielemans: 3+ shots | 53% |
| Malik Tillman: 1+ assists | 53% |
| Leandro Trossard: 3+ shots | 52% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ assists | 52% |
| Youri Tielemans: 2+ shots | 52% |
| Malik Tillman: 2+ goals | 52% |
| Alex Freeman: 1+ shots | 52% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 4+ shots | 51% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 2+ shots | 51% |
| Youri Tielemans: 1+ goals + assists | 51% |
| Chris Richards: 1+ shots | 51% |
| Tim Ream: 1+ shots | 51% |
| Christian Pulisic: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Christian Pulisic: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Christian Pulisic: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Folarin Balogun: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Folarin Balogun: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Haji Wright: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Haji Wright: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Haji Wright: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Haji Wright: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Haji Wright: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Leandro Trossard: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Leandro Trossard: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 1+ assists | 50% |
| Christian Pulisic: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Christian Pulisic: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Christian Pulisic: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Folarin Balogun: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Folarin Balogun: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Folarin Balogun: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Folarin Balogun: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Haji Wright: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Haji Wright: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Haji Wright: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Leandro Trossard: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Leandro Trossard: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Leandro Trossard: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Matt Turner: 2+ saves | 50% |
| Matt Turner: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Matt Turner: 4+ saves | 50% |
| Matt Turner: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Thibaut Courtois: 2+ saves | 50% |
| Thibaut Courtois: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Thibaut Courtois: 4+ saves | 50% |
| Thibaut Courtois: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Christian Pulisic: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Christian Pulisic: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Christian Pulisic: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Folarin Balogun: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Folarin Balogun: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Folarin Balogun: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Leandro Trossard: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Leandro Trossard: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Leandro Trossard: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Haji Wright: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 3+ goals | 50% |
| Brandon Mechele: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Brandon Mechele: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Brandon Mechele: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Timothy Castagne: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Timothy Castagne: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Youri Tielemans: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Brandon Mechele: 2+ assists | 50% |
| Timothy Castagne: 2+ assists | 50% |
| Youri Tielemans: 2+ assists | 50% |
| Brandon Mechele: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Timothy Castagne: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Youri Tielemans: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Youri Tielemans: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Brandon Mechele: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Brandon Mechele: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Brandon Mechele: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Timothy Castagne: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Timothy Castagne: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Timothy Castagne: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Youri Tielemans: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Youri Tielemans: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Youri Tielemans: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 2+ goals | 50% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 3+ goals | 50% |
| Gio Reyna: 2+ goals | 50% |
| Hans Vanaken: 2+ goals | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 3+ goals | 50% |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 2+ goals | 50% |
| Alex Freeman: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Alex Freeman: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Antonee Robinson: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Antonee Robinson: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Antonee Robinson: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Chris Richards: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Chris Richards: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Maxim De Cuyper: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Maxim De Cuyper: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Maxim De Cuyper: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Maxim De Cuyper: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Tim Ream: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Tyler Adams: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Tyler Adams: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Tyler Adams: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 1+ assists | 50% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 2+ assists | 50% |
| Hans Vanaken: 1+ assists | 50% |
| Hans Vanaken: 2+ assists | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 2+ assists | 50% |
| Sergiño Dest: 1+ assists | 50% |
| Sergiño Dest: 2+ assists | 50% |
| Alex Freeman: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Alex Freeman: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Antonee Robinson: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Antonee Robinson: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Chris Richards: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Chris Richards: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Maxim De Cuyper: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Maxim De Cuyper: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Sergiño Dest: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Sergiño Dest: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Tim Ream: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Tyler Adams: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Tyler Adams: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Hans Vanaken: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Hans Vanaken: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Hans Vanaken: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Hans Vanaken: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jeremy Doku: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jeremy Doku: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jeremy Doku: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Sergiño Dest: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Sergiño Dest: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Sergiño Dest: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Sergiño Dest: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jeremy Doku: 3+ goals | 50% |
| Maxim De Cuyper: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Gio Reyna: 3+ goals | 49% |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 3+ goals | 49% |
| Gio Reyna: 1+ goals | 48% |
| Folarin Balogun: 3+ shots | 36% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 1+ goals + assists | 31% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 3+ shots | 25% |
| Sergiño Dest: 1+ shots | 25% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 2+ assists | 25% |
| Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals | 24% |
| Sergiño Dest: 4+ shots | 21% |
| Leandro Trossard: 2+ assists | 20% |
| Sergiño Dest: 2+ shots | 20% |
| Sergiño Dest: 3+ shots | 20% |
| Jeremy Doku: 1+ assists | 20% |
| Jeremy Doku: 2+ assists | 19% |
| Jeremy Doku: 1+ goals + assists | 17% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ goals | 16% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 1+ goals | 16% |
| Weston McKennie: 2+ assists | 15% |
| Christian Pulisic: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 1+ assists | 14% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Haji Wright: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Haji Wright: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Leandro Trossard: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Christian Pulisic: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Folarin Balogun: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Weston McKennie: 1+ goals + assists | 13% |
| Christian Pulisic: 1+ assists | 11% |
| Haji Wright: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Leandro Trossard: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 1+ goals | 9% |
| Youri Tielemans: 1+ goals | 9% |
| Weston McKennie: 1+ assists | 9% |
| Youri Tielemans: 1+ assists | 9% |
| Jeremy Doku: 1+ goals | 9% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 1+ assists | 8% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Weston McKennie: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Folarin Balogun: 1+ assists | 6% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 1+ assists | 6% |
| Hans Vanaken: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Jeremy Doku: 2+ goals | 6% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ assists | 5% |
| Brandon Mechele: 1+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Folarin Balogun: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Christian Pulisic: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Brandon Mechele: 1+ assists | 3% |
| Timothy Castagne: 1+ assists | 3% |
| Timothy Castagne: 1+ goals + assists | 3% |
| Folarin Balogun: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Leandro Trossard: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Youri Tielemans: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Christian Pulisic: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Weston McKennie: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Sergiño Dest: 1+ goals | 1% |
| Sergiño Dest: 2+ goals | 1% |
Market context
The 2026 FIFA World Cup Round of 16 match between the United States and Belgium is set for 8:00 PM ET on July 6, with both defences having surrendered high expected goals throughout the tournament. Historical knockout games featuring teams with similar defensive frailties often produce high-scoring affairs, where the 14% crowd-implied probability for a specific player prop reflects a market that is heavily skewed towards the goal-scoring outcome rather than the match winner. Comparable cases from recent World Cup rounds show that when elite attackers like Romelu Lukaku face tracking failures at the back post, the probability of them scoring or assisting rises significantly, framing the current odds as a utility play for those monitoring defensive mismatches rather than pure talent edges[1][7].
Traders evaluating this market programmatically should focus on live dependencies such as possession shifts and the availability of key attackers like Folarin Balogun, whose return to the USMNT lineup provides an elite weapon in attack[9]. A critical catalyst to watch is the live angle where Belgium starts with more possession but the USA creates the first big transition chance, which would immediately increase the implied probability for live over 2.5 goals or a live USA win[11]. Recent analysis from DraftKings confirms that Balogun’s availability is a decisive factor, backing the Americans to advance while simultaneously supporting the over 2.5 goals market due to Belgium’s poor defensive record[2][4]. For power-users employing conditional orders, the settlement window ending 2026-07-07 requires monitoring real-time data feeds for any late lineup changes that could alter the player prop settlement.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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Trade United States vs. Belgium - Player Props on Polymarket Review UK
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