Norway vs. England - Exact Score

Platform comparison

Market context

On 11 July 2026 at 5:00 PM ET, Norway and England will meet in a FIFA World Cup quarter-final, with the market focusing solely on the 90-minute regulation score. The crowd-implied 6% probability for an exact score outcome reflects the volatility typical of high-stakes knockout matches where defensive rigidity often overrides historical scoring trends.

Historically, England dominates Norway with 22 wins in 31 encounters, including a 6-1 victory in 1966 and a 4-0 win in the 1980 World Cup[2][6]. However, recent World Cup qualifiers show Norway winning two of four matches, suggesting a tighter contest than past data implies[5]. Programmatically, traders should model this as a conditional order where the exact score probability is weighted against the 2.67 goals-per-game average for Norway versus England’s 2.33 goals-conceded metric[3].

Key catalysts include final squad announcements and tactical shifts, particularly Erling Haaland’s role for Norway, who has scored consistently in the group stage[7]. Traders monitoring copy-trading bots should watch for late odds movements tied to injury updates, as recent reports confirm Haaland’s fitness ahead of the quarter-final[7]. The settlement window ending 21:00 UTC on 11 July requires automated systems to execute conditional orders before the match concludes, ensuring exposure to the exact score outcome remains active until resolution.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Norway vs. England - Exact Score across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Review UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.