France vs. Sweden - Exact Score

Platform comparison

Market context

The upcoming FIFA World Cup match between France and Sweden at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey on 30 June 2026 is the real-world event driving this market. France, having scored ten goals across three group-stage victories against Senegal, Norway and Iraq, faces a Sweden side that has trained intensely ahead of the fixture. The market settles on the exact score after 90 minutes of regulation plus stoppage time, excluding extra time and penalty shoot-outs, with a current crowd-implied probability of just 3% for the specific outcome in question.

Historically, France holds a stronger record against Sweden, winning three of their last five meetings with one draw and a solitary Swedish win, while their overall head-to-head since 2005 shows France winning five games to Sweden’s two with one draw. This dominance frames the 3% probability as a low-odds bet on a precise scoreline rather than a general win expectation, mirroring past World Cup knockout matches where dominant teams like France often secure narrow victories such as 1–0 or 2–1 rather than high-scoring affairs. Traders evaluating this programmatically should treat the 3% as a conditional order on a specific narrow margin, not a broad win probability.

Key catalysts include the final confirmed line-ups, which are expected to be announced by FIFA on 29 June, and any late injury updates for stars like Mbappé or Isak, whose fitness directly impacts goal-scoring potential. Recent pre-match training footage from FIFA’s official YouTube channel confirms both teams are in full preparation, with no reported cancellations or postponements. A trader building a conditional bot should monitor the 29 June announcement window and set alerts for any injury news from Goal.com or BBC Sport, as these dependencies will shift the probability distribution for exact scores significantly before the 5 p.m. ET kick-off.

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Methodology

We track France vs. Sweden - Exact Score across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.