ODI Series West Indies vs. New Zealand: West Indies vs New Zealand

Platform comparison

Market context

West Indies face New Zealand in a one-day international match on 13 July 2026, with the market currently pricing West Indies victory at 7 per cent implied probability. The fixture forms part of a bilateral ODI series, with resolution determined by the official result published on ESPNcricinfo, including any outcomes decided by Super Over or other scheduled tiebreak mechanisms.

Historical matchups between these sides show New Zealand as consistent favourites in ODI cricket. Since 2015, New Zealand has won approximately 70 per cent of completed ODI encounters against West Indies, reflecting both squad depth and recent form trajectories. When evaluating the 7 per cent probability, traders should cross-reference recent bilateral records and squad composition announcements—West Indies have shown vulnerability in away conditions, whilst New Zealand's home record (if applicable) typically strengthens their position. Comparable markets for West Indies in unfavourable matchups have settled in the 5–12 per cent range depending on venue and team news.

Key variables for programmatic monitoring include official team sheets released 24 hours before play, injury updates from both boards, and pitch reports from the ground. Weather forecasts for the match location become material 72 hours prior; rain-affected matches create Super Over scenarios that can shift outcomes unexpectedly. Traders should track ESPNcricinfo's live coverage and official ICC communications for any format changes or scheduling adjustments. The settlement window closes 13 July at 14:30 UTC, requiring automated feeds to capture the finalised result promptly for position reconciliation.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Review UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Review UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.