Major League Cricket: Washington Freedom vs Seattle Orcas

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Market context

Washington Freedom and Seattle Orcas face off in the ninth match of the 2026 Cognizant Major League Cricket season on 25 June, with Seattle Orcas having already secured a five-wicket victory in the season opener. Historical head-to-head data shows Washington Freedom won four of their last five encounters, averaging 167.0 runs per match, while Seattle Orcas won three of theirs at 154.6 runs per match[2]. The current 0% YES probability implies a near-certain Seattle Orcas win, yet this contradicts Washington’s recent dominance and the chasing-side trend that has won all three games so far this season[4]. Programmatically, a trader would flag this as a potential mispricing, testing conditional orders against the chasing-side dependency rather than accepting the crowd-implied certainty.

Key catalysts include the toss outcome, as Washington Freedom elected to field in the opener and won the toss, and any updates on player availability or weather delays before the 6:30 PM start[5][6]. Traders should monitor official MLC announcements for pitch reports or injury updates, as Seattle Orcas recently set a league batting record in their opener, suggesting strong offensive momentum[3]. A recent match commentary highlights Seattle’s captain questioning their bowlers’ toughness, indicating a potential vulnerability if Washington posts a high total[4]. For algorithmic approaches, dependencies on the chasing-side trend and Seattle’s batting record should be weighted heavily, while the 0% probability warrants scrutiny against Washington’s superior run average and historical win rate.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Review UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.