The Hundred: Manchester Super Giants vs Sunrisers Leeds

Platform comparison

Market context

The Hundred returns to Manchester in August 2026, with the Super Giants hosting Sunrisers Leeds in a twenty-over fixture. The match falls within the group stage of the tournament, scheduled for 11 August at Old Trafford. Settlement occurs at 13:30 UTC on 18 August, allowing a week for any administrative or weather-related delays. The current 100% YES probability reflects the near-certainty that one team will be declared a winner under the tournament's playing conditions, which mandate a Super Over in the event of a tied result during group play.

Historical precedent from The Hundred's previous editions shows that fixture cancellations due to weather remain rare at Old Trafford during August, with only one complete washout recorded since 2021. Forfeits are rarer still in domestic T20 cricket; the last recorded walkover in The Hundred occurred in 2022 due to a Covid outbreak. These low-frequency events explain why the market has settled at ceiling probability. For programmatic traders, the key distinction lies in distinguishing between ordinary wins (including Super Over outcomes) and the narrow set of administrative voids that would leave the market unresolved.

Traders monitoring this fixture should track team squad announcements in late July, particularly injury updates to key fast bowlers—weather forecasts for Manchester on 11 August will matter less than fixture scheduling changes or late-stage player availability issues that might trigger cancellation discussions. The ECB's official fixture calendar and The Hundred's injury bulletins, typically released fortnightly, serve as primary data feeds for conditional order logic.

Methodology

We track The Hundred: Manchester Super Giants vs Sunrisers Leeds across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Review UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.