Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Review UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| FC Malisheva (-1.5) | 100% |
| FC Malisheva (-2.5) | 100% |
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| O/U 3.5 | 100% |
| O/U 4.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| FC Malisheva O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| FC Malisheva O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| FC Malisheva O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| FC Malisheva 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| FC Malisheva 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| FC Malisheva 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| FC Malisheva 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| KF Vllaznia Shkodër (-1.5) | 0% |
| KF Vllaznia Shkodër (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| KF Vllaznia Shkodër O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| KF Vllaznia Shkodër O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| KF Vllaznia Shkodër O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| KF Vllaznia Shkodër 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| KF Vllaznia Shkodër 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 0% |
| KF Vllaznia Shkodër 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| KF Vllaznia Shkodër 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
FC Malisheva and KF Vllaznia Shkodër have already completed their UEFA Europa Conference League fixture, with Vllaznia securing a 2–1 victory on 15 July 2026. The 100% YES crowd-implied probability reflects the finality of this result, as the match outcome is no longer uncertain. For a power-user evaluating automation tools, this market represents a settled event where conditional orders or copy-trading bots would have executed prior to settlement, rendering live positioning irrelevant.
Historically, prediction markets tied to completed football matches with definitive scores settle at 100% once official results are confirmed by governing bodies like UEFA. Comparable cases from past Europa Conference League qualifiers show that markets on “more markets” (such as total goals or half-time results) follow the same trajectory once the underlying event concludes. The absence of any draw or alternative win probability in the crowd data aligns with the 2–1 scoreline recorded across multiple live-score platforms, confirming the market’s resolved status [1][3].
Traders should monitor official UEFA match reports and post-game press statements for any potential disqualifications or score corrections, though such events are rare in completed fixtures. No recent news sources indicate controversy surrounding this match, and the consistency of the 2–1 result across ESPN, Sky Sports, and YS Scores reinforces its validity [1][4]. For programmatic approaches, the settlement window ending at 14:30 UTC on 15 July serves as the hard cutoff; any bot or API listener should treat this as a closed loop with no further catalysts to track.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Review UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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