Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Review UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| O/U 3.5 | 100% |
| O/U 4.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Operário Ferroviário EC O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Operário Ferroviário EC O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Operário Ferroviário EC O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| AA Ponte Preta O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| AA Ponte Preta O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Operário Ferroviário EC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| AA Ponte Preta 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Operário Ferroviário EC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Operário Ferroviário EC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| AA Ponte Preta 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Operário Ferroviário EC (-1.5) | 0% |
| AA Ponte Preta (-1.5) | 0% |
| Operário Ferroviário EC (-2.5) | 0% |
| AA Ponte Preta (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| AA Ponte Preta O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Operário Ferroviário EC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| AA Ponte Preta 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| AA Ponte Preta 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Operário Ferroviário EC host AA Ponte Preta in a Série B match at Estádio Germano Krüger, with kick-off listed for 22 July 2026 at 22:30 UTC. The crowd’s 0% YES pricing implies the “more markets” set is being treated as effectively closed or non-operative rather than reflecting a live match view, so a power-user would first verify whether the settlement logic is tied to a specific sub-market, an unavailable data feed, or a post-match resolution condition. [2][3]
For historical context, the head-to-head record is not one-sided: across 11 meetings, Ponte Preta have won 3 and Operário 5, which is enough to prevent a mechanical favourite/underdog read from the past alone. For programmatic trading, that means the cleaner approach is to model the market as an event-state problem rather than a pure team-strength bet: check whether the market template, match clock, and settlement metadata all resolve to the same fixture before placing copy-trades or conditional orders. [1][2]
The practical catalysts are straightforward: confirmed line-ups, late schedule changes, venue confirmation, and any official competition updates around Série B timing or postponement risk. FotMob and Global Sports Archive both place the fixture at Germano Krüger on the same evening, but with a one-hour UTC discrepancy, so automated scripts should normalise timestamps against the exchange’s own settlement window before triggering any bot logic. [2][3]
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Review UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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