Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Review UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
1% | 99% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
1% | 99% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 1% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 1% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 1% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 1% |
| SE Palmeiras 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 1% |
| SE Palmeiras 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 1% |
| SC Internacional 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 1% |
| SE Palmeiras (-1.5) | 0% |
| SC Internacional (-1.5) | 0% |
| SE Palmeiras (-2.5) | 0% |
| SC Internacional (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| SE Palmeiras O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| SE Palmeiras O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| SE Palmeiras O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| SC Internacional O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| SC Internacional O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| SC Internacional O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| SE Palmeiras 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| SE Palmeiras 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| SC Internacional 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| SC Internacional 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| SC Internacional 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Palmeiras meet Internacional in a Brazil Série A fixture, and the **More Markets** question is about whether the platform will add extra event-specific derivatives beyond the core match lines. For a programme or bot built to monitor market creation, the practical read is simple: a **0% YES** price implies no cluster expansion is currently being offered, so any copy-trading or conditional-order logic would be waiting for a fresh market listing rather than a move in the main win/draw/total-goals book.
Historically, this pairing has not been especially one-sided, which matters when modelling whether traders will want further props if the game draws attention. FootyStats’ head-to-head data shows Palmeiras with 14 wins, Internacional with 8, and 7 draws across 29 meetings, while SoccerPunter’s longer sample also points to a fairly balanced series overall, with both sides close on goals scored and conceded.[1][9] Recent live and statistical pages also show matches between them can swing on shot volume and territory rather than clear finishing edges, which is the sort of profile that can produce interest in secondary markets if teamsheets or line-ups change late.[10][11]
For a trader using tooling, the main triggers are operational rather than tactical: whether the book refreshes with additional props after line-up confirmation, whether any schedule change pushes the settlement clock, and whether related team/news feeds mention rotation or injury issues that could alter market demand. Sportradar and live-score providers list the fixture and track in-play status, so an automated watcher would usually poll for new markets, timestamp changes, and dependency updates around the announced kick-off window.[8][18]
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Review UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
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