Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Review UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| CR Flamengo (-1.5) | 100% |
| CR Flamengo (-2.5) | 100% |
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| O/U 3.5 | 100% |
| O/U 4.5 | 100% |
| O/U 5.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Mirassol FC O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| CR Flamengo O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| CR Flamengo O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| CR Flamengo O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| CR Flamengo 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Mirassol FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| CR Flamengo 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| CR Flamengo 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Mirassol FC (-1.5) | 0% |
| Mirassol FC (-2.5) | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Mirassol FC O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Mirassol FC O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Mirassol FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Mirassol FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| CR Flamengo 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Mirassol FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Mirassol hosted Flamengo in a Brazilian Série A fixture scheduled for 16 August 2026 at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia, with Flamengo listed as the away side and around -115 on the moneyline in pre-match market data.[11][13] For a “more markets” contract, the practical question is whether additional prop or derivative markets were posted before kick-off and remained open through the settlement window ending on 16 August at 21:30 UTC; the crowd-implied 0% YES reflects no usable market participation rather than a football result.
Historical framing points towards a low base rate for genuinely new, late-added “more markets” on a fixed league fixture once line-ups and match notes are already locked. Recent comparable listings for the same game show a standard pre-match menu only, with totals and winner pricing, which is the sort of setup that usually leaves little room for extra derivative expansion unless the venue, feed, or exchange operator pushes a fresh contract pack closer to start time.[3][10][12] A programme watching this programmatically would compare the market count against prior Mirassol–Flamengo listings and flag any delta from the baseline.
For traders running bots or conditional orders, the main catalysts are fixture confirmation, any broadcast or data-feed update, and whether the market maker republishes additional sub-markets before the deadline. Flamengo’s wider schedule on 16 August also included a league match slot that day, so any late rescheduling or feed correction could affect downstream market availability; otherwise, once kick-off passed, the relevant trigger became purely administrative settlement rather than new information flow.[6][11]
Methodology
This page reviews Mirassol FC vs. CR Flamengo - More Markets across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
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