Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Review UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
51% | 49% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
51% | 49% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Los Cabos Open, Qualification: Tristan Boyer vs Bernard Tomic | 51% |
| Los Cabos Open, Qualification: Tristan Boyer vs Bernard Tomic Set 1 Winner | 51% |
| Los Cabos Open, Qualification: Tristan Boyer vs Bernard Tomic Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 51% |
| Los Cabos Open, Qualification: Tristan Boyer vs Bernard Tomic Match O/U 21.5 | 51% |
| Los Cabos Open, Qualification: Tristan Boyer vs Bernard Tomic Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 51% |
| Los Cabos Open, Qualification: Tristan Boyer vs Bernard Tomic Match O/U 22.5 | 51% |
| Los Cabos Open, Qualification: Tristan Boyer vs Bernard Tomic Set 2 Winner | 50% |
| Los Cabos Open, Qualification: Tristan Boyer vs Bernard Tomic Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Los Cabos Open, Qualification: Tristan Boyer vs Bernard Tomic Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Los Cabos Open, Qualification: Tristan Boyer vs Bernard Tomic Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Los Cabos Open, Qualification: Tristan Boyer vs Bernard Tomic Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 50% |
| Los Cabos Open, Qualification: Tristan Boyer vs Bernard Tomic Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Los Cabos Open, Qualification: Tristan Boyer vs Bernard Tomic Match O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Los Cabos Open, Qualification: Tristan Boyer vs Bernard Tomic Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Completed Match | 2% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 51% YES probability for Los Cabos Open, Qualification: Tristan Boyer vs Bernard Tomic. This market refers to the tennis match between Tristan Boyer and Bernard Tomic in the Los Cabos Open, Qualification, originally scheduled for July 26, 2026 at 9:00PM ET. This market will resolve to '…
Methodology
We track Los Cabos Open, Qualification: Tristan Boyer vs Bernard Tomic across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Review UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Review UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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