PGA Tour: 3M Open Top 20

Platform comparison

Market context

The 3M Open is a PGA Tour stroke-play event where the top 20 finish, including ties, will decide this market. For a power-user running tools or conditional orders, the cleanest approach is to treat the bet as a simple rank-threshold event: the only relevant state at close is whether the named player is inside the final top 20 on the official PGA Tour leaderboard, with ties counted in. The market’s current 42% crowd-implied probability sits below the kind of price typically attached to outright contenders, which is useful because top-20 markets are usually less volatile than winner markets but still sensitive to tee-time draw, cut position, and late-round scoring runs.

Recent 3M Open pricing also suggests a fairly broad contender pool rather than a single dominant favourite. Bookmakers have listed players such as Tony Finau, Sam Burns, Akshay Bhatia and Sahith Theegala among the shorter-priced names, while Scottie Scheffler has been quoted as the outright favourite in 2026 betting markets and the field has been reported at 144 players. That matters for modelling because a top-20 settlement is usually driven more by repeatable tee-to-green performance and weekend survival than by win equity alone; in practical terms, any automated strategy should track projected cut line, strokes-gained form and tee-time sequencing rather than headline winner odds. [1][2][4]

The main catalysts are the official field sheet, Thursday tee times, withdrawal news and the cut line after Friday play, then the final leaderboard once the tournament ends. If results are not posted by the market’s deadline, the contract resolves to No under the stated rules, so a programmatic workflow should include a hard timeout and an official PGA Tour results check before settlement. Recent previews have also highlighted that the event is scheduled for a 144-player field playing for an $8.8 million purse, which helps frame the depth of competition and the chance that a mid-tier name can land inside the top 20 without being in the outright title conversation. [4][1][2]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track PGA Tour: 3M Open Top 20 across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.