Haiti vs. Scotland - Halftime Result

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Market context

Haiti and Scotland meet in the 2026 FIFA World Cup on 13 June at 9:00 PM ET, with this market settling on the halftime scoreline. The 0% implied probability on a Haiti victory at the break reflects both teams' recent form and the structural disadvantage Haiti faces in international competition. Scotland, ranked 37th by FIFA as of early 2026, enters as the clear favourite; Haiti sits outside the top 100. A Scotland halftime lead is the overwhelming baseline expectation, though the market's extreme confidence warrants scrutiny for any edge in the opening 45 minutes.

Historical precedent suggests halftime markets in World Cup fixtures between disparate-ranked sides rarely produce surprises. In qualifying rounds and tournament play, teams ranked 30+ places apart typically establish control early; Haiti's last competitive match against a top-40 side (November 2023, Jamaica friendly) saw them concede within the first half. Scotland's recent warm-up fixtures and squad depth announcements will signal tactical intent—whether they press aggressively from kickoff or adopt a measured approach. Traders monitoring team news feeds and official FIFA communications through early June should flag any late injuries to Scotland's midfield or Haiti's goalkeeper, as these could shift halftime probability marginally.

For programmatic traders, this market's extreme skew creates a practical problem: the YES position offers minimal liquidity despite theoretical value if Haiti scores first. Conditional order logic should focus on monitoring pre-match team sheets and weather conditions at the venue, which could favour a defensive setup. The settlement window closes 14 June at 01:00 UTC, allowing roughly 8 hours post-match for official confirmation of halftime records.

Methodology

We track Haiti vs. Scotland - Halftime Result on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Review UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.