Haiti vs. Scotland - Exact Score

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Haiti and Scotland will meet in the 2026 FIFA World Cup group stage on 13 June at 9:00 PM ET. The market resolves on the exact final score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time and penalties. Any outcome not explicitly listed settles to "Any Other Score," which typically captures the majority of exact-score markets given the combinatorial nature of football results.

Historical exact-score markets in World Cup fixtures show that individual scorelines rarely exceed 5–8% implied probability, even for heavily favoured teams. Haiti's World Cup appearances are limited; their sole prior tournament was 1974, whilst Scotland last qualified in 1998. In qualifying for 2026, Haiti finished fourth in CONCACAF with 16 points across 14 matches, whilst Scotland advanced from UEFA qualifying with 20 points from 10 games. The 0% crowd probability reflects the difficulty of predicting precise outcomes rather than match direction—a programmatic trader would typically model this as a Poisson distribution across possible scorelines rather than backing individual results outright.

Squad announcements and injury updates become material in late May 2026, particularly for Scotland given their reliance on established Premier League players. Fixture congestion in the preceding domestic season affects fatigue profiles; traders should monitor whether either side faces fixture pile-up before the tournament. Weather conditions at the venue and team news released 48–72 hours before kickoff historically shift exact-score probabilities by 1–3 percentage points. Conditional order logic linking this market to match-outcome and total-goals markets would allow hedging across correlated positions.

Methodology

We track Haiti vs. Scotland - Exact Score on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Review UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.