Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Review UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
83% | 17% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
83% | 17% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Harry Kane: 1+ shots | 83% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ shots | 78% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ shots | 61% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ shots | 57% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ shots | 57% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ shots | 57% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ shots | 54% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ shots | 54% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals | 53% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ shots on target | 53% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ shots | 53% |
| Bradley Barcola: 1+ shots | 52% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ shots | 51% |
| Bradley Barcola: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Eberechi Eze: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Dayot Upamecano: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jordan Pickford: 2+ saves | 49% |
| Declan Rice: 1+ shots | 49% |
| Bradley Barcola: 4+ shots on target | 49% |
| Désiré Doué: 4+ shots on target | 49% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Michael Olise: 4+ shots on target | 49% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Anthony Gordon: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Anthony Gordon: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Bradley Barcola: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Bukayo Saka: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Bukayo Saka: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Bukayo Saka: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Declan Rice: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Declan Rice: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Désiré Doué: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Eberechi Eze: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Eberechi Eze: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Elliot Anderson: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Elliot Anderson: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Elliot Anderson: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Harry Kane: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Jude Bellingham: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Manu Koné: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Manu Koné: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Manu Koné: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Manu Koné: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Marcus Rashford: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Marcus Rashford: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Michael Olise: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Michael Olise: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Morgan Rogers: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Morgan Rogers: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Noni Madueke: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Rayan Cherki: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Rayan Cherki: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Rayan Cherki: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Théo Hernández: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Théo Hernández: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Jude Bellingham: 4+ shots on target | 49% |
| Jordan Pickford: 3+ saves | 48% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Lucas Digne: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Bradley Barcola: 1+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Bradley Barcola: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Désiré Doué: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Jude Bellingham: 3+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Noni Madueke: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Anthony Gordon: 3+ shots on target | 47% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 1+ shots on target | 47% |
| Jules Koundé: 1+ shots on target | 47% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ shots | 47% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 3+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Bukayo Saka: 3+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Declan Rice: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Elliot Anderson: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Morgan Rogers: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Théo Hernández: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Brice Samba: 2+ saves | 45% |
| Manu Koné: 1+ shots | 43% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ shots on target | 43% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ shots | 43% |
| Declan Rice: 1+ shots on target | 42% |
| Manu Koné: 1+ shots on target | 42% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ shots on target | 41% |
| Elliot Anderson: 1+ shots on target | 41% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ shots on target | 41% |
| Bradley Barcola: 2+ shots on target | 40% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ shots on target | 40% |
| Lucas Digne: 1+ shots on target | 40% |
| Brice Samba: 3+ saves | 39% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 1+ shots | 39% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ goals | 37% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ shots on target | 37% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 2+ shots on target | 37% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 4+ shots on target | 37% |
| Jordan Pickford: 5+ saves | 36% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ shots | 36% |
| Bradley Barcola: 1+ shots on target | 36% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals + assists | 36% |
| Elliot Anderson: 1+ shots | 35% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ shots on target | 34% |
| Brice Samba: 4+ saves | 33% |
| Jude Bellingham: 3+ shots on target | 33% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ shots | 32% |
| Bradley Barcola: 3+ shots on target | 32% |
| Declan Rice: 2+ shots on target | 32% |
| Michael Olise: 3+ shots on target | 32% |
| Jules Koundé: 1+ shots | 31% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 2+ shots on target | 31% |
| Harry Kane: 4+ shots on target | 31% |
| Manu Koné: 2+ shots on target | 31% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 2+ shots on target | 31% |
| Jordan Pickford: 4+ saves | 30% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 1+ shots | 30% |
| Elliot Anderson: 2+ shots on target | 30% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 4+ shots on target | 30% |
| William Saliba: 1+ shots on target | 30% |
| Rayan Cherki: 1+ goals + assists | 30% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals | 28% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 1+ shots | 28% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals + assists | 27% |
| Brice Samba: 5+ saves | 26% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ assists | 26% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ goals + assists | 26% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ goals + assists | 26% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ goals + assists | 26% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals | 25% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ shots on target | 24% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ shots on target | 24% |
| Declan Rice: 2+ goals | 23% |
| Désiré Doué: 3+ shots | 23% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 1+ assists | 23% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ goals + assists | 23% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 1+ shots on target | 22% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 3+ shots on target | 22% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals + assists | 22% |
| Bradley Barcola: 2+ shots | 21% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ shots on target | 21% |
| Harry Kane: 4+ shots | 21% |
| Eberechi Eze: 1+ goals + assists | 21% |
| Morgan Rogers: 1+ goals + assists | 21% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ goals + assists | 21% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 1+ shots on target | 20% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 4+ shots | 20% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals | 19% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ goals | 19% |
| Marc Guéhi: 1+ shots | 19% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 1+ goals + assists | 19% |
| Jude Bellingham: 3+ shots | 18% |
| Manu Koné: 2+ shots | 18% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ shots on target | 18% |
| Théo Hernández: 1+ goals + assists | 18% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 2+ shots | 17% |
| Dayot Upamecano: 1+ shots | 17% |
| Ezri Konsa: 1+ shots | 17% |
| Lucas Digne: 1+ shots | 17% |
| Michael Olise: 3+ shots | 17% |
| Rayan Cherki: 1+ assists | 17% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ goals | 16% |
| Elliot Anderson: 2+ shots | 16% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 2+ shots | 16% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 2+ shots | 15% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ assists | 15% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Dayot Upamecano: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Ezri Konsa: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Marc Guéhi: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ assists | 14% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ assists | 14% |
| Morgan Rogers: 2+ assists | 14% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Bradley Barcola: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Désiré Doué: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Eberechi Eze: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Elliot Anderson: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ goals | 13% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Marcus Rashford: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Michael Olise: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Morgan Rogers: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Rayan Cherki: 1+ goals | 13% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ shots on target | 13% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Bukayo Saka: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Eberechi Eze: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Elliot Anderson: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Rayan Cherki: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Théo Hernández: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Declan Rice: 1+ goals + assists | 13% |
| Anthony Gordon: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 2+ goals | 12% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ goals | 12% |
| Théo Hernández: 2+ goals | 12% |
| Anthony Gordon: 3+ shots | 12% |
| Jules Koundé: 2+ shots | 12% |
| Désiré Doué: 3+ shots on target | 12% |
| Bukayo Saka: 1+ assists | 12% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ assists | 12% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ assists | 12% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 2+ goals | 11% |
| Bradley Barcola: 1+ goals | 11% |
| Bukayo Saka: 2+ goals | 11% |
| Eberechi Eze: 1+ goals | 11% |
| Manu Koné: 2+ goals | 11% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ goals | 11% |
| Jude Bellingham: 4+ shots | 11% |
| Lucas Digne: 2+ shots | 11% |
| Bradley Barcola: 3+ shots | 11% |
| Michael Olise: 4+ shots | 11% |
| Bradley Barcola: 1+ assists | 11% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ assists | 11% |
| Morgan Rogers: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Rayan Cherki: 3+ goals | 10% |
| Jules Koundé: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 2+ shots on target | 10% |
| Eberechi Eze: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Bukayo Saka: 1+ goals | 9% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ goals | 9% |
| Rayan Cherki: 2+ goals | 9% |
| Declan Rice: 2+ shots | 9% |
| Désiré Doué: 4+ shots | 9% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ assists | 9% |
| Dayot Upamecano: 2+ shots | 8% |
| Declan Rice: 1+ assists | 8% |
| Elliot Anderson: 1+ assists | 8% |
| Morgan Rogers: 1+ assists | 8% |
| Théo Hernández: 1+ assists | 8% |
| Declan Rice: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Théo Hernández: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 3+ shots | 6% |
| Anthony Gordon: 4+ shots | 6% |
| Ezri Konsa: 2+ shots | 6% |
| Lucas Digne: 3+ shots | 6% |
| Manu Koné: 3+ shots | 6% |
| Marc Guéhi: 2+ shots | 6% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 3+ shots | 6% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 3+ shots | 6% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 1+ assists | 6% |
| Manu Koné: 1+ assists | 6% |
| Manu Koné: 2+ assists | 6% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Elliot Anderson: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Manu Koné: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Dayot Upamecano: 3+ shots | 5% |
| Declan Rice: 3+ shots | 5% |
| Elliot Anderson: 3+ shots | 5% |
| Jude Bellingham: 5+ shots | 5% |
| Bradley Barcola: 4+ shots | 5% |
| Désiré Doué: 5+ shots | 5% |
| Harry Kane: 5+ shots | 5% |
| Michael Olise: 5+ shots | 5% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 1+ assists | 5% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ assists | 5% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals | 4% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Manu Koné: 4+ shots | 4% |
| Bradley Barcola: 5+ shots | 4% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 5+ shots | 4% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ assists | 4% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ assists | 4% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 4+ shots | 3% |
| Anthony Gordon: 5+ shots | 3% |
| Declan Rice: 4+ shots | 3% |
| Elliot Anderson: 4+ shots | 3% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 4+ shots | 3% |
| Bradley Barcola: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Declan Rice: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Bradley Barcola: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Jude Bellingham: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ goals | 1% |
| William Saliba: 1+ shots | 1% |
| William Saliba: 2+ shots | 1% |
Market context
The France vs. England - Player Props prediction market currently prices this outcome at 83% YES. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between France and England, scheduled for July 18 at 5:00 PM ET.
Methodology
Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Review UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%206%2066%20A%2026%2026%200%200%201%2058%2066%22%20fill%3D%22%23E6B98D%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3Ccircle%20cx%3D%2232%22%20cy%3D%2226%22%20r%3D%2222%22%20fill%3D%22%23F5CBA7%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%2010%2018%20Q%2016%204%2026%2010%20Q%2020%202%2032%206%20Q%2044%202%2038%2010%20Q%2048%204%2054%2018%22%20stroke%3D%22%230ea5e9%22%20stroke-width%3D%224%22%20fill%3D%22none%22%20stroke-linecap%3D%22round%22%2F%3E%3C%2Fsvg%3E){kind=small}
and%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%206%2066%20A%2026%2026%200%200%201%2058%2066%22%20fill%3D%22%23E6B98D%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3Ccircle%20cx%3D%2232%22%20cy%3D%2226%22%20r%3D%2222%22%20fill%3D%22%23F5CBA7%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%2010%2026%20A%2022%2028%200%200%201%2054%2026%22%20fill%3D%22%230ea5e9%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3C%2Fsvg%3E){kind=small}
Trade France vs. England - Player Props on Polymarket Review UK
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
Open live market →