Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Review UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
89% | 11% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
89% | 11% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Lautaro Martínez: 1+ shots | 89% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 2+ shots | 76% |
| Lionel Messi: 1+ goals | 66% |
| Lionel Messi: 1+ goals + assists | 64% |
| Dailon Livramento: 1+ shots | 55% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 3+ shots | 54% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 1+ goals | 50% |
| Gilson Benchimol: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Juan Musso: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Lionel Messi: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Lionel Messi: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ shots | 49% |
| Dailon Livramento: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Gilson Benchimol: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| José Manuel López: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| José Manuel López: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| José Manuel López: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| José Manuel López: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Jovane Cabral: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Jovane Cabral: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Julián Álvarez: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Julián Álvarez: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Lionel Messi: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Nuno Jóia: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Nuno Jóia: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Juan Musso: 2+ saves | 48% |
| Juan Musso: 4+ saves | 48% |
| Juan Musso: 5+ saves | 48% |
| Vózinha: 2+ saves | 48% |
| Vózinha: 3+ saves | 48% |
| Vózinha: 4+ saves | 48% |
| Dailon Livramento: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Dailon Livramento: 3+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Julián Álvarez: 3+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Julián Álvarez: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 3+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Lionel Messi: 3+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Lionel Messi: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 1+ shots on target | 44% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ shots on target | 42% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ shots | 42% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 4+ shots | 38% |
| Lionel Messi: 1+ assists | 35% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 1+ goals + assists | 35% |
| Julián Álvarez: 3+ shots | 35% |
| Jovane Cabral: 1+ shots | 33% |
| Vózinha: 5+ saves | 32% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ goals | 31% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ shots on target | 31% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals | 29% |
| Gilson Benchimol: 1+ shots | 28% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 2+ shots on target | 27% |
| Julián Álvarez: 4+ shots | 26% |
| Nuno Jóia: 1+ shots | 25% |
| Dailon Livramento: 4+ goals + assists | 24% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 5+ shots | 23% |
| Julián Álvarez: 5+ shots | 22% |
| Jovane Cabral: 2+ shots | 20% |
| Dailon Livramento: 1+ shots on target | 20% |
| Dailon Livramento: 2+ shots | 19% |
| Gilson Benchimol: 2+ shots | 18% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 1+ assists | 18% |
| Nuno Jóia: 2+ shots | 16% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ assists | 16% |
| José Manuel López: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 2+ goals | 14% |
| Jovane Cabral: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 3+ shots on target | 14% |
| Dailon Livramento: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Dailon Livramento: 1+ goals + assists | 12% |
| Lionel Messi: 3+ goals | 11% |
| Gilson Benchimol: 3+ shots | 11% |
| José Manuel López: 2+ goals | 10% |
| Dailon Livramento: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Dailon Livramento: 1+ goals | 9% |
| Jovane Cabral: 3+ shots | 9% |
| Nuno Jóia: 3+ shots | 9% |
| Jovane Cabral: 4+ shots | 8% |
| Gilson Benchimol: 4+ shots | 7% |
| Nuno Jóia: 4+ shots | 7% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ goals | 6% |
| Jovane Cabral: 5+ shots | 6% |
| Gilson Benchimol: 1+ goals | 5% |
| José Manuel López: 3+ goals | 5% |
| Jovane Cabral: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Dailon Livramento: 1+ assists | 5% |
| Nuno Jóia: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Dailon Livramento: 4+ shots | 4% |
| Nuno Jóia: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Julián Álvarez: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Gilson Benchimol: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Jovane Cabral: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Dailon Livramento: 2+ goals | 0% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 89% YES probability for Argentina vs. Cabo Verde - Player Props. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Argentina and Cabo Verde, scheduled for July 3 at 6:00 PM ET.
Methodology
This page reviews Argentina vs. Cabo Verde - Player Props across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Review UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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