Argentina vs. Switzerland - Exact Score

Platform comparison

Market context

The upcoming FIFA World Cup quarter-final between Argentina and Switzerland takes place on Saturday, 11 July 2026 at 9:00 p.m. ET in Kansas City, with a sellout crowd expected to pack the stadium[1][2]. This market resolves strictly on the 90-minute regulation score, excluding extra time and penalty shoot-outs, meaning any outcome not explicitly listed settles as "Any Other Score".

Historically, Switzerland have never beaten Argentina in World Cup history, having faced them twice previously with the Swiss failing to secure a win[1]. Argentina, a three-time tournament winner, enter as heavy favourites with odds of -140 for a win and -150 for a goal margin of at least 0.5, while the draw sits at +260[3]. The current 10% crowd-implied probability for an exact score reflects this dominance, mirroring past quarter-finals where top-tier nations like Argentina consistently outperformed lower-ranked opponents such as Switzerland, whose best finish remains a quarter-final appearance in 1954[7].

Traders should monitor the official line-up announcements released shortly before kickoff, as player availability—particularly for Lionel Messi, who is surpassing a Maradona record—could shift conditional order execution[5]. Recent news confirms the match is scheduled for Kansas City Stadium, with no postponement expected, though any cancellation would keep the market open until completion[2]. Programmatic approaches should focus on the -145 ML odds for Argentina, using bots to execute conditional orders if the draw probability spikes above 25% pre-match, while tracking live updates from ESPN for real-time spread adjustments[3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Review UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.