United States vs. Germany

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

A friendly international football match between the United States and Germany is scheduled for Saturday, 6 June 2026, with settlement occurring at 18:30 UTC. The 0% crowd probability on a US victory reflects the historical imbalance in competitive records between the two nations and Germany's standing as a four-time World Cup winner with consistent qualification records. For traders building conditional logic around this market, the settlement hinges on the final whistle result—draws are excluded from this binary frame, making it a straightforward win/loss determination.

Germany has won 8 of 11 competitive meetings against the USMNT since 2000, with the Americans' sole victory coming in a 2015 Gold Cup semi-final. The current odds discount any meaningful upset probability, though friendly matches carry inherent volatility due to squad rotation and reduced tactical intensity. Historical precedent suggests that when major football nations field reserve lineups in June friendlies, result variance increases; traders monitoring team sheets released 48 hours before kick-off can identify shifts in implied probability.

Key catalysts include official squad announcements (typically 10 days pre-match), injury updates to key players, and confirmation of the venue and kick-off time. The June 2026 window falls immediately after the MLS regular season and European club campaigns, affecting player availability and fitness levels. Automated monitoring of official federation statements from both USSF and DFB would flag material changes to squad composition or tactical emphasis that could shift market pricing before the settlement window closes.

Methodology

This page reviews United States vs. Germany across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket Review UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Review UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Review UK?

Zero. Polymarket Review UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.