Republic of Ireland vs. Qatar

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Active sub-markets

Market context

A FIFA International Friendly between the Republic of Ireland and Qatar is scheduled for 28 May 2026. The match will settle this market upon completion, with the event window closing at 18:45 UTC on that date. As a friendly fixture outside competitive tournament play, both sides will field squads with varying intensity and preparation levels, though Ireland typically uses such matches to evaluate squad depth ahead of qualifying campaigns.

The current 100% YES probability reflects the near-certainty that this fixture will occur as scheduled. Historical precedent shows friendly matches between established national federations rarely cancel outright; postponements due to weather or security concerns are uncommon at this fixture level. Qatar's hosting infrastructure, tested during the 2022 World Cup, reduces logistical risk factors that might otherwise create settlement ambiguity. However, traders using conditional order logic should monitor FIFA's official match calendar and both federations' injury bulletins in the weeks preceding the fixture, as squad announcements typically arrive 7–10 days before international windows.

For programmatic traders, the key dependency is fixture confirmation rather than outcome prediction. Set conditional triggers on official FIFA or national federation announcements regarding squad lists and venue confirmation. The settlement window's precision (18:45 UTC) aligns with standard match completion timelines for European fixtures. Since this market resolves on occurrence rather than result, liquidity may thin substantially once the match kicks off, making exit timing critical for positions held through the event window.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Review UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.